Tigers vs. Royals Moneyline Pick

by | Last updated Jul 11, 2022 | mlb

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals

Date: Monday, July 11th, 02:10 ET

Location: Kauffman Stadium

TV: Bally Sports Kansas City

Money Line: Tigers +105 / Royals -125 (Bovada – This place is incredible! 50% bonus! Rebates on every bet; win or lose! Best live betting platform online! FAST payouts! What more could you ask for?)

Total Line: 8.5


Detroit: Michael Pineda (2-3, 3.62)
Kansas City: Brad Keller (4-9, 4.37)

Tigers Projected Lineup

Spencer Torkelson 1B
Tucker Barnhart C
Jonathan Schoop 2B
Victor Reyes RF
Jeimer Candelario 3B
Robbie Grossman RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Riley Greene CF
Javier Báez SS
Michael Pineda P

Royals Projected Lineup

Edward Olivares CF
Michael A. Taylor P
Hunter Dozier 1B
MJ Melendez RF
Nicky Lopez 2B
Bobby Witt Jr. SS
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
Whit Merrifield 2B
Andrew Benintendi LF
Brad Keller P


Detroit Tigers: 36-49-0 SU / OU 30-51-4 / Run Line W/L 41-44-0
Kansas City Royals: 32-52-0 SU / OU 41-39-4 / Run Line W/L 36-48-0

The Kansas City Royals host the Detroit Tigers on Monday, July 11th at Kauffman Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Kansas City as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Detroit heads into today’s action, looking to rebound from a 4-2 loss to the White Sox. Detroit’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 7 hits, leading to 4 runs. The Tigers ended the game with just 2 runs on 5 hits. The loss came as Detroit was the betting underdog, getting 160.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 9.0 runs. So far, Detroit has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 30-51-4.

In the Tigers’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Even with this record, in these games, their scoring differential is just -1. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 3.18 runs per game. But, over this stretch this figure has bumped up to 3.8 Detroit’s overall series record is just 7-15-5.

The Kansas City Royals will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Guardians by 4 runs (5-1). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Guardians to 1 run and 5 hits. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 10 hits. Heading into action, Kansas City was the favorite at -105.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 22 games, winning at a rate of 50.0%. Combined, the Royals and Guardians’ run total fell below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. Even still, Kansas City games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 41-39-4.

Across their last 5 contests, the Royals are above .500, going 3-2. Kansas City has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5-scoring margin sitting at -7. Kansas City is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 3.8 runs per game, compared to a season long mark of 3.90. Kansas City has a below .500 series record of just 7-17-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Detroit Tigers will send Michael Pineda to the mound with an overall record of 2-3. To date, Pineda has an ERA of 3.62 while lasting an average of 4.59 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.26. Opponents are hitting for power against Pineda, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.96. Up to this point, Pineda has a strikeout percentage of just 13.0% and a per-game average of 2.43. Throughout the season, Pineda has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.67 per contest.

Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals, with an overall record of 4-9. So far, Keller has put together an ERA of 4.37. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.64 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.259. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Keller, as he is allowing just 1.1 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Brad Keller has a strong K% of 15.0%, including a per game average of 3.69. Keller comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.08 free passes per outing.

Detroit vs Kansas City History

For the season, the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals will be playing their 7th game of the season. So far, the teams have each won 3 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-5. The average run total in these games is 8.05 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 1.83 runs. Kansas City won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 6-13. Last year, the Tigers and Royals averaged 8.05 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.26 runs per contest.

More Picks: Get our Pittsburgh at Miami betting predictions 7/11/22 >>>

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit’s last 10 games when playing Kansas City
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City’s last 10 games when playing Detroit
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Prediction

Heading into Monday’s American League Central showdown between Detroit and Kansas City the Royals are the slight favorite on the moneyline. Even though Brad Keller picked up the win the last time he faced the Tigers, I see Michael Pineda keeping Kansas City in check. Look for Detroit to pick up the win.

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