Pirates vs. Marlins Picks & Predictions 7/11/22

by | Last updated Jul 11, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins

Date: Monday, July 11th, 06:40 ET

Location: LoanDepot Park

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Money Line: Pirates +130 / Marlins -155 (Bovada – 50% bonus and awesome player rewards program where you get cash rebates every single time you bet!)

Total Line: 8.0


Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (2-6, 5.21)
Miami: Trevor Rogers (4-7, 5.57)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Kevin Newman 2B
Jason Delay C
Diego Castillo RF
Oneil Cruz SS
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Ben Gamel RF
Michael Chavis 1B
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Bryan Reynolds CF
Mitch Keller P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Brian Anderson 3B
Miguel Rojas SS
Avisaíl García RF
Jesus Sanchez CF
Jacob Stallings C
Garrett Cooper 1B
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Jon Berti 2B
Joey Wendle 3B
Trevor Rogers P


Pittsburgh Pirates: 36-50-0 SU / OU 35-44-7 / Run Line W/L 42-44-0
Miami Marlins: 41-43-0 SU / OU 40-39-5 / Run Line W/L 44-40-0

The Miami Marlins host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, July 11th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Miami as the favorite (-155), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, Pittsburgh picked up a 2-run win over the Brewers (8-6). For the game, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 6 runs on 9 hits. The Pirates lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 13 hits, leading to 8 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 145.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Pirates and Brewers combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.5 runs. On the season, Pittsburgh’s over-under record is 35-44-7.

In the Pirates’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. However, even with an above .500 record (last 5) their run differential sits at just 0 (last 5). In their last 5 contests, Pittsburgh is averaging 4.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 3.67. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 8-14-6.

Miami will look to keep things rolling in today’s game, as they most recently took down the Mets by 2 runs 2-0. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Mets to 0 runs and 7 hits. The Marlins’ offense ended the game with just 2 runs on 6 hits. In the game, Miami was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -105.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 42 games, winning at a rate of 64.0%. Combined, the Marlins and Mets’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. Even still, Miami games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 40-39-5.

The Marlins come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -9. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.6 runs over their last 5 game. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 9-15-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Mitch Keller to the mound with an overall record of 2-6. So far, Keller has put together an ERA of 5.21. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.75 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.286. So far, Keller has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.95 home runs per 9 innings. On the season, Mitch Keller has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This includes a per game average of 4.12 K’s per game. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Keller is averaging 3.79 free passes per outing.

Trevor Rogers gets the start for the Marlins, with an overall record of 4-7. Rogers gets the start with an ERA of 5.57. On average, he has lasted 4.51 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.272. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Rogers, averaging 1.25 homers per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Trevor Rogers is averaging 4.19, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.46 walks per outing.

Pittsburgh vs Miami History

Today’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins will be their first meeting of the season. Last season, Pittsburgh won 5 games compared to 2 for Miami. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 5-2, with the average scoring differential sitting at 2.43 runs. Last year, the two teams combined to average 8.71 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami’s last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
  • Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Monday’s National League showdown between Pittsburgh and Miami, both teams are coming off impressive wins. Even with Trevor Rogers on the mound with a WHIP of 1.57, the Marlins are still the favorite on the moneyline. Look for Miami’s offense to carry the team to a win, as Mitch Keller has had his struggles on the mound for Pittsburgh.

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