Today’s MLB Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Reds

by | Last updated Jun 6, 2022 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Monday, June 6th, 06:40 ET
Location: Great American Ball Park
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Money Line: Diamondbacks +100 / Reds -120 (Get better lines >>>)
Total Line: 9.5


Arizona: Madison Bumgarner (2-4, 3.31)
Cincinnati: Hunter Greene (2-7, 6.19)

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Jake McCarthy RF
Alek Thomas CF
David Peralta LF
Pavin Smith RF
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Daulton Varsho CF
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Madison Bumgarner P

Reds Projected Lineup

Kyle Farmer SS
Albert Almora Jr. RF
Tommy Pham LF
Aristides Aquino RF
Brandon Drury 3B
Matt Reynolds 2B
Tyler Stephenson C
Joey Votto 1B
Nick Senzel CF
Hunter Greene P


Arizona Diamondbacks: 26-29-0 SU / OU 23-31-1 / Run Line W/L 33-22-0
Cincinnati Reds: 18-35-0 SU / OU 29-23-1 / Run Line W/L 23-30-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday, June 6th at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cincinnati as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 9.5.

Recent Form

The Diamondbacks are hoping to get back on track after falling to the Pirates by a score of 3-0. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Pirates to just 3 runs on 9 hits. On offense, the Diamondbacks finished with 0 runs on 5 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -154.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 12 of their games, winning at a rate of 57.9%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. With this result, Arizona’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 23-31-1.

Over the Diamondbacks’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -7. In their last 5 contests, Arizona is averaging 3.4 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 3.85. Arizona’s overall series record is just 7-7-3.

In their last game, the Reds suffered a 1 run loss to the Nationals by a score of 5-4. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 7 hits, leading to 5 runs. At the plate, the Reds only came through for 4 runs on 13 hits. Cincinnati dropped the game despite being favored at -185.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 14 games, winning at a rate of 36.0%. With this result, the Reds and Nationals combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.5 runs. Even still, Cincinnati games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 29-23-1.

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -5 over their last 5 games. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 5.2 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.28. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 4-9-4.

Pitching Matchup

Madison Bumgarner gets the start for the Diamondbacks, with an overall record of 2-4. Through 11 appearances, Bumgarner has an ERA of just 3.31 while averaging 4.92 innings per appearance. In his previous outings, left-hander opponents are hitting 0.227 off the left-hander. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Bumgarner, averaging 1.5 homers per 9 innings pitched. Bumgarner is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.36 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 16.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.98 walks per contest.

Hunter Greene gets the start for the Reds, with an overall record of 2-7. So far, Greene has put together an ERA of 6.19. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.8 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.253. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Greene, averaging 2.81 homers per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Hunter Greene has a strong strikeout percentage of 28.99%, including a per game average of 6.4. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.5 walks per outing.

Arizona vs Cincinnati History

Today’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds is their matchup of the year. Going back to last year, Arizona won the season series, 5 games to 1. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 5-1, with the average scoring differential sitting at 3.33 runs. Between the games, the average run total was 12.67 runs per game.

Get our Texas at Cleveland Betting Analysis & Pick 6/6/22 >>>

Betting Trends

  • Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
  • Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing Arizona
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of Cincinnati’s last 20 games at home

Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into this National League matchup between Arizona and Cincinnati, the Reds are the slight favorites on the moneyline. Although the Diamondbacks and Reds both struggle on offense, I see Arizona faring better vs Hunter Greene. I recommend grabbing the Diamondbacks to pick up the win.

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