Today’s Pick: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves 8/3/20

by | Aug 3, 2020 | mlb

New York Mets (3-7) at Atlanta Braves (7-3)
When: 7:10 p.m., Monday, August 3
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: FS1

Moneyline: NYM -130/ATL +110 (MyBookie - Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE!)
Runline: Mets -1.5/Braves +1.5
Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.64 ERA, 0.55 WHIP) vs. Mike Soroka (0-0, 1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP)

Battle of Arms

If you like pitching, this is the matchup for you. These two pitchers were sensational on opening day, with nobody giving an inch and the Mets finally earning a 1-0 win. But since that game, the Braves have pounded the Mets, winning five straight against New York and establishing some early distance between themselves and their eastern rival.

But this will be the toughest game they’ve had against the Mets because it doesn’t get tougher than having to face deGrom. Here’s how dominant deGrom has been: he’s had six consecutive starts where he held the opposition to fewer than four HITS. In his past 18 starts, only one opponent has even managed to top-six hits against deGrom, and only two of those 18 opponents managed more than three runs.

Atlanta’s hitting has been on point against the Mets’ lesser pitchers, and the Braves are going to have to do one of two things. Either they’re going to have to count on Soroka to keep them in the game and attack the Mets’ bullpen — yet again — or they’re going to have to scratch out a run or two against deGrom and count on how well they’ve shut down the Mets in this series.

Wasting Chances

Truth be told, New York’s offense has actually hit the ball pretty well. The Mets’ problem isn’t getting on base, as they rank fifth in baseball in OBP at .343 (fourth if you don’t count the infected Phillies, who have played just three games to the Mets’ 10). The problem isn’t hitting, either, as only the White Sox have more hits this season than the Mets’ 91.

No, the Mets’ problem is failing to cash in when they actually get someone on base. The White Sox have just one more hit than the Mets, but they’ve scored ten more runs than New York has. The Cubs, who have the game’s highest OBP among healthy teams, have 23 fewer hits but ten more runs than the Mets do. You can make a case that the Mets’ numbers are skewed because the White Sox and Cubs face lesser pitching in the Central compared to what the Mets see in the East, but as we’ve established, hitting is not the Mets’ problem.

However, against Soroka, hitting wasn’t something the Mets did all that well, as they managed just four hits off the Atlanta ace. New York has to find a way to get a run or two off Soroka, and the only way they do that is by not wasting their chances. Chances already rarely come against Soroka; the Mets really don’t need to help Atlanta’s cause by wasting opportunities.

Missing in Action

Now it’s time to address the elephant in the room: Yoenis Cespedes choosing to opt-out of the remainder of the season. Cespedes has almost certainly played his last game as a Met, as he’ll be an unrestricted free agent, but the bigger concern is what this could do to the Mets’ clubhouse. Things are already spiraling in New York, as the Mets are through at least 1/6 of the season and could quickly find themselves on the outside looking in, especially if the Phillies and Marlins stay infected and the Mets run into postponements. This game is a crossroads for New York: they will come together and move forward, or they’re going to fall apart.

Betting Trends

  • The Braves have won five straight against the Mets.
  • The Mets are 1-5 in their past six against a starter whose WHIP is under 1.15.
  • The under is 8-1-2 in the Mets’ past 11 as a road favorite.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Braves’ past six as a home underdog.
  • The Braves are 5-1 in their past six as a home underdog.
  • The Mets have lost six of their past seven at Truist Park.

Weather Report

Storms are in the forecast for metro Atlanta, with temperatures set to hit around 87 degrees on a mostly cloudy day.

Dan’s Pick

The Braves have been red-hot, and they’ve been outstanding value as a home dog. It’s never easy to go against deGrom, but the Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been good enough to qualify as shaky this season. The bullpen has been straight-up disastrous, and the Braves’ bullpen has been pretty solid when their starters give them a good showing.o

I trust Soroka and the Braves’ bullpen a lot more than I do deGrom and the Mets’ bullpen. Give me the Braves as a home underdog. Bet your Mets/Braves pick for free by taking advantage of a 200% bonus where you deposit $25 and get an extra $50 added to your betting account! This offer can be found at Intertops Sportsbook and you must use this link to sign-up and use bonus code ROOKIE200 to get the bonus credited.