Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays ML Pick

by | Last updated May 25, 2023 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Date: Thursday, May 25th, 1:10 ET
Location: Tropicana Field
Money Line: Blue Jays +122/Rays -146
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Blue Jays on Thursday, May 25th at Tropicana Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
TOR +122 +1.5 O 8.5 (-116)
TB -146 -1.5 U 8.5 (-105)

Blue Jays vs. Rays Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
George Springer 1 CF
Bo Bichette 2 SS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3 1B
Daulton Varsho 4 RF
Matt Chapman 5 3B
Whit Merrifield 6 2B
Brandon Belt 7 1B
Danny Jansen 8 C
Kevin Kiermaier 9 CF
Alek Manoah SP

Batting Order Position
Yandy Díaz 1 1B
Wander Franco 2 SS
Randy Arozarena 3 LF
Brandon Lowe 4 2B
Harold Ramírez 5 DH
Isaac Paredes 6 3B
Josh Lowe 7 CF
Christian Bethancourt 8 C
Jose Siri 9 CF
Zach Eflin SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Toronto Blue Jays: 26-24 SU / OU 25-23 / Runline 23-27
Tampa Bay Rays: 36-15 SU / OU 30-18 / Runline 30-21

For the season, the Blue Jays have put together a record of 26-24, including going just 2-8 over their last ten games. In the AL East standings, they are 4th, trailing by 9.5 games. This year, they have gone 13-9 at home and 13-15 on the road, with an overall series mark of 9-6.

  • The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 46.0% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.4
  • The Blue Jays have been favored in 70.0% of their games and have runline records of 9-13 and 14-14 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 52% of the Blue Jays’ 50 games at 25-23.

The Rays head into today’s game in first place in the AL East on a record of 36-15. Over their last five games, they have put together an above .500 record of 3-2. At home, Tampa Bay is 23-5 and 13-10 on the road. Their overall series record comes in at 10-4.

  • The Rays have covered the runline in 58.8% of their games and have an average run margin of 2.2
  • The Rays have been favored in 86.3% of their games and have runline records of 17-11 and 13-10 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 62% of the Rays’ 51 games at 30-18.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Alek Manoah 10 10 50 1-4 5.15 1.74 9

Entering with a record of 1-4, Alek Manoah is making his 11th appearance of the season. So far, he has an ERA of 5.15 on a batting average allowed of .272. On the road, he is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 0-2 at home on an ERA of 7.55. For the season, teams have a slugging percentage of .450 against him.

In his last appearance, Alek Manoah lasted 5 2/3 innings in the Blue Jays’ 6-5 loss to the Orioles. Individually, Manoah finished with a no-decision while giving up two runs on six hits.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Zach Eflin 8 8 47 6-1 3.45 1.00 8

Today will be Zach Eflin’s 9th appearance this season and he has an overall record of 6-1. His current ERA stands at 3.45 and OBP allowed of .261. So far, he struckout 52 batters and has a WHIP of 1.00. On the road, his ERA is 5.20 compared to 2.39 at home.

Tampa Bay is hoping that Zach Eflin can help guide them to another win, as they defeated the Brewers (8-4) the last time he pitched. He finished the game with three earned runs on four hits across seven innings.

Blue Jays vs. Rays Offense Outlook

This season, Toronto is currently ranked 10th in the league in terms of runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Their home run count currently stands at 57, which is 14th in the MLB. The team’s batting average of .266 is 3rd in the league, including 2nd on the road compared to 8th at home.

Toronto Blue Jays Top Bats

Bo Bichette .327 .366 .505 30 9 2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .301 .370 .497 34 8 2
Matt Chapman .301 .379 .516 27 7 2

Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
George Springer .407 9 6 2 .757
Matt Chapman .287 6 4 2 .647
Whit Merrifield .540 9 5 1 .723
Danny Jansen .140 4 4 2 .427
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .217 5 1 1 .367

This season, the Rays have emerged as one of the top home run hitting teams in baseball, with a total of 97 home runs (1st). In addition, they have maintained an average of 6.0 runs per game, while their collective batting average stands at .271. Their slugging percentage at home is .486 compared to .501 on the road.

Tampa Bay Rays Top Hitters vs. Righties

Randy Arozarena .282 6 .463 .371
Yandy Díaz .341 7 .585 .445
Wander Franco .252 6 .436 .320
Josh Lowe .307 10 .614 .409
Isaac Paredes .250 6 .458 .331

Tampa Bay Rays Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Randy Arozarena .167 3 4 1 .367
Luke Raley .167 2 4 2 .666
Jose Siri .333 4 3 2 .833
Wander Franco .290 6 2 0 .390
Josh Lowe .250 4 1 1 .438

Free MLB Pick

Toronto’s starting pitcher, Alek Manoah, experienced a crushing defeat against Tampa Bay earlier this season, yielding a hefty seven runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Although his recent performances have shown slight improvement, he has managed only one quality start in his last six appearances. His tendency to allow a high number of baserunners, especially against a team like the Rays, spells potential disaster.

Zach Eflin will be on the mound for the Rays. He’s demonstrated an impeccable track record in day games, holding a flawless 5-0 record and a commendable 2.70 ERA. His overall home statistics closely mirror his day game success, if not slightly better. Given Tampa’s impressive 23-5 home record this season, even accounting for their fair share of narrow victories, the line and Manoah’s struggles make me lean towards the runline. My recommendation: take Tampa Bay -1.5 at +133.

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