Total Bet: Brewers vs. Marlins

by | Last updated May 13, 2022 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins
Date: Friday, May 13th, 06:40 ET
Location: LoanDepot park
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Money Line: Brewers -138 / Marlins +115 (BetOnline)
Total Line: 6.5


Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes (1-2, 1.86) Miami: Pablo López (4-1, 1.25)

Brewers Projected Lineup

Omar Narváez C Lorenzo Cain CF Hunter Renfroe RF Tyrone Taylor LF Luis Urías 3B Christian Yelich LF Rowdy Tellez 1B Kolten Wong 2B Willy Adames SS Corbin Burnes P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Joey Wendle 3B Miguel Rojas SS Avisaíl García RF Garrett Cooper 1B Jacob Stallings C Jorge Soler LF Jesus Sanchez CF Jasrado Chisholm Jr. 2B Jesús Aguilar 3B Pablo López P


Milwaukee Brewers: 20-12-0 SU / OU 15-14-3 / Run Line W/L 15-17-0 Miami Marlins: 14-17-0 SU / OU 14-17-0 / Run Line W/L 16-15-0

The Miami Marlins host the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, May 13th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-138), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Brewers come into this matchup having suffered a 3 run loss to the Cincinnati (14-11). In the loss, Milwaukee’s pitchers gave up 14 runs on 14 hits. Offensively, they finished with 11 runs on 15 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -200.0. Through 28 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 64.0%. With the OU line set at 9.5 runs, the Brewers and Cincinnati combined to go over this total. So far, Milwaukee has an above .500 OU record of (15-14-3).

Over the Brewers’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -15. In their last 5 contests, Milwaukee is averaging 5.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.97. So far, Milwaukee has won over half of their 11 series played, going 6-4-1.

The Miami Marlins are coming off a big win over the Diamondbacks by a score of 11-3. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 3 runs on hits 4 hits. In the victory, the Marlins came up with 15 hits and 11 runs. In the game, Miami was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -115.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 19 games, winning at a rate of 47.0%. The Marlins and Diamondbacks went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. On the season, the team has an over-under record of just 14-17-0.

In their last 5 contests, Marlins have just 2 wins, going 2-3. Despite this record, the team still has a positive run differential of 8 (last 5). Despite their struggles in the win column, the offense has averaged 5.4 runs over their last 5 games. This is an improvement over their season-long mark of 4.13. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 4-6-0.


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Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee will roll with Corbin Burnes (1-2) as their starter. Through 6 appearances, Burnes has an ERA of just 1.86 while averaging 6.37 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.17 against him. Home runs have been a concern for Burnes as he is allowing 1.18 per 9 innings. Per game, Corbin Burnes is averaging 8.33 K’s, on a strikeout percentage of 34.0%. Throughout the season, Burnes has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.86 per contest.

Pablo López gets the start for the Marlins, with an overall record of 4-1. Currently, López has a strong ERA of just 1.25 while pitching an average of 6.0 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.186 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.25 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Pablo López has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 26.0%, while averaging 5.8 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.0 walks per contest.

Milwaukee vs Miami History

Today’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins will be their first meeting of the season. When looking back to last season, Milwaukee and Miami split the season series, with each team picking up 3. The average scoring margin in these games was 3.83, with an over under record of 5-1. Between the games, the average run total was 7.17 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
  • Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games as a favorite.
  • Marlins are 28-57 in their last 85 games following an off day.
  • Marlins are 17-35 in their last 52 games as an underdog.

Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins Prediction

Today’s matchup between Milwaukee and Miami features two outstanding pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Pablo Lopez. Even though both teams are coming off impressive offensive outings, I recommend taking the under. Throughout the season, Milwaukee has consistently struggled against quality pitching, and at times Corbin Burnes can be unhittable, averaging 11.64 strikeouts per 9 innings. Even with an over-under line at just 6.5 runs, I am going with the under.

Free MLB Pick: Under 6.5 Runs

MLB Betting Guide

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