Total Play: Twins vs. Padres 7/31/22

by | Jul 31, 2022 | mlb

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres
Date: Sunday July 31st, 04:10 ET
Location: Petco Park
TV: Bally Sports San Diego
Money Line: Twins 126 / Padres -150
Total Line: 8.5
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STARTING PITCHING

Minnesota: Dylan Bundy (6-4, 5.02)
San Diego: Sean Manaea (5-5, 4.33)

Twins Projected Lineup

Jose Miranda 3B
Kyle Garlick LF
Gary Sánchez C
Nick Gordon P
Gio Urshela SS
Alex Kirilloff RF
Jorge Polanco SS
Byron Buxton CF
Carlos Correa SS
Dylan Bundy P

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Nomar Mazara RF
Jorge Alfaro C
Eric Hosmer 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Sean Manaea P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Minnesota Twins: 53-47-0 SU / OU 49-44-7 / Run Line W/L 45-55-0
San Diego Padres: 56-46-0 SU / OU 47-52-3 / Run Line W/L 48-54-0

The San Diego Padres host the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, July 31st at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, Minnesota picked up a 3-run win over the Padres (7-4). The Padres came up with 8 hits leading to 4 runs against Minnesota’s pitchers. The Twins lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 7 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 115.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 7.5 runs. Minnesota has had more than half of its games go over the over-under line (49-44-7).

Over the Twins’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -5. However, the team’s offense isn’t to blame, as they are averaging 5.4 runs per game (last 5) compared to their season average of 4.56. So far, Minnesota has won over half of their 32 series played, going 15-11-6.

San Diego will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Twins by the score of 7-4. On their way to giving up 7 runs, the Padres staff allowed 9 hits. The Padres offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 8 hits. Leading into the game, San Diego was the betting favorite at -135.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 72 games, winning at a rate of 54.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Padres and Twins combined to surpass the line of 7.5 runs. So far, San Diego has an over-under record of just 47-52-3.

In their last 5 contests, the Padres have just 2 wins, going 2-3. During this time, the team has a run differential of -1. Despite their struggles in the win column, the offense has averaged 5.4 runs over their last 5 games. This is an improvement over their season-long mark of 4.37. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 15-11-6.

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Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send Dylan Bundy to the mound with an overall record of 6-4. So far, Bundy has put together an ERA of 5.02. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.95 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.275. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Bundy, averaging 1.39 homers per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Dylan Bundy is averaging 3.82, on a strikeout percentage of 18.0%. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Bundy is averaging 2.03 free passes per outing.

In today’s game, San Diego turns to starter Sean Manaea. For the year, he has a record of 5-5. To date, Manaea has an ERA of 4.33 while lasting an average of 5.78 innings per appearance. Manaea’s opponent’s batting average currently sits at 0.239. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Manaea, averaging 1.38 homers per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Sean Manaea has a strong K% of 24.0%, including a per game average of 5.78. Command has been a problem for Manaea, as he is giving up 3.38 walks per outing.

Minnesota vs San Diego History

For the season, the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres will be playing their 3rd game of the season. So far, the teams have each won 1 time. Through 2 games, the series over-under record is 2-0, with the average run total sitting at nan runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 6.0 runs. Last year, the team’s split the season series at 0-0. In these 0 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 0-0. Last year, the Twins and Padres averaged nan runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was nan runs per game.

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Betting Trends

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 6 games at home

Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s Interleague matchup between Minnesota and San Diego, the over-under line is set at 8.5 runs. With Dylan Bundy and Sean Manaea on the mound, I see this being a higher-scoring game than expected. In each pitcher’s last start, the games featured a ton of runs. Look for this to continue as this game surpasses 8.5 runs.

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