Twins vs. Athletics Picks & Predictions

by | May 16, 2022 | mlb

Minnesota Twins (20-15) vs. Oakland Athletics (15-22)

When: 9:40 p.m., Monday, May 16

Where: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, Calif.

Moneyline: MIN -130/OAK +105

Runline: Twins -1.5/Athletics +1.5

Total: 7.5

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Starting Pitchers: Chris Archer (0-1, 4.43 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs. Zach Logue (2-1, 1.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)

High Risk, Some Reward

In this day and age, quite a few pitchers go hunting for strikeouts, and Chris Archer is undoubtedly in that group. For the year, Archer has been averaging a strikeout per inning, but he’s also been giving up just under a hit per inning and has put 12 men on base via the free pass, which is one of the biggest reasons that he hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning once in 2022.

That said, this is the perfect team for Archer to hunt for strikeouts against because the Athletics have been simply horrible at putting the bat on the ball. Not only is Oakland dead last in batting average, but the Athletics have struck out 318 times in 36 games, more than anyone other than the Angels. The Athletics aren’t big home-run threats, hitting just 22 on the season, so there’s little risk of Archer putting his team in a tight spot if he’s a little wild in this game. This could be a time to bet on him to hit his strikeout prop.

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Keeping It In the Park

Logue is different from Archer, as he’s a much more controlled pitcher who doesn’t miss the strike zone all that often. He does miss bats a fair amount, but he doesn’t miss the zone enough to put the Athletics at much risk of a big inning when someone gets the better of him at the plate.

However, the Athletics’ balsa bats mean that even a small inning can be enough to put Oakland behind the eight-ball, as happened the first time Logue faced off with the Twins this season. In five innings, Logue made just two mistakes, a pair of solo home runs in the second and fifth innings. The problem was that Oakland only managed to score once in the entire game, leaving the Athletics with the short end of the stick yet again. The offense hasn’t done any better in recent games; the Athletics scored a mere six runs in four games in their series with the Angels.

Get the Runs in Early

If the runs don’t come in the first five innings in this one, they might not be coming at all. That’s because the Twins and the Athletics have been two of the best at keeping runs off the board once they put their bullpens in the game. Minnesota boasts a 3.16 ERA from its bullpen, and Oakland is even better, posting a 3.13 ERA. The Athletics, in particular, have excelled at making teams earn a comeback victory should they be playing with the lead after the sixth inning, as they’ve allowed a mere seven home runs from their bullpen.

In this situation, I’d play a live bet if at all possible and wait for runs to come in the first five innings. Once that ends, I’d grab the under of the new number and bank the best possible outcome.

Betting Trends

  • The Twins are 12-2 in their past 14 games as a favorite.
  • The Twins are 14-6 in their past 20 games overall.
  • The Athletics are 5-12 in their past 17 games overall.
  • The Athletics are 3-10 in their past 13 against a right-handed starter.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Twins’ past six against a left-handed starter.
  • The under is 5-1-2 in the Athletics’ past eight against the AL Central.
  • The under is 7-2-3 in the Athletics’ past 12 games overall.
  • The Twins have won four of the past five matchups between the two teams.

Weather Report

This could be a day where some weird things happen, in large part because this is not baseball weather for these teams. Temperatures will sit in the 50s, with the wind blowing out to center at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

This seems to be a bit of a straightforward play. However, I go where the money leads me, and I don’t see much of a problem for Minnesota in this situation. The Twins are hitting the ball enough to string some wins together, while the Athletics haven’t seen anything like that kind of offense happen at any point this season.

I think Archer keeps the A’s off-balance in this one and racks up the strikeout numbers. Give me the Twins. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus at one of the top tier bookies on our best sportsbook bonuses page!

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