Twins vs. Guardians Odds & Picks 6/30/22

by | Jun 30, 2022 | mlb

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians
Date: Thursday, June 30th, 01:10 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: Bally Sports North
Money Line: Twins +126 / Guardians -150 (Get the best lines >>>)
Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Minnesota: Chris Archer (2-3, 3.14)
Cleveland: Shane Bieber (3-4, 3.18)

Twins Projected Lineup

Gio Urshela 3B
Gary Sánchez C
Max Kepler RF
Alex Kirilloff LF
Nick Gordon LF
Jorge Polanco 2B
Carlos Correa SS
Luis Arraez 1B
Byron Buxton CF
Chris Archer P

Guardians Projected Lineup

Andrés Giménez 2B
Luke Maile C
Oscar Gonzalez RF
Franmil Reyes RF
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan CF
Amed Rosario SS
Shane Bieber P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Minnesota Twins: 43-34-0 SU / OU 36-37-5 / Run Line W/L 36-42-0
Cleveland Guardians: 37-34-0 SU / OU 35-32-5 / Run Line W/L 38-34-0

The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on Thursday, June 30th at Progressive Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cleveland as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Guardians (7-6), the Twins will look to get back in the win column. Minnesota’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 10 hits, leading to 7 runs. The Twins ended the game with 11 hits of their own, leading to 6 runs. The loss came as Minnesota was the betting underdog, getting 113.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.5 runs. The Twins now have an over-under record of 36-37-5.

In the Twins’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +17. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.53 runs per game. But, over this stretch this figure has bumped up to 6.2 So far, Minnesota has won over half of their 24 series played, going 12-7-5.

In their last game, the Guardians picked up a close win over the Twins by a score of 7-6. Cleveland’s pitching staff gave up 11 hits, leading to 6 Twins runs. Offensively, they finished with 7 runs on 10 hits. Cleveland picked up the win while being favored at -123.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 35 games, winning at a rate of 66.0%. The Guardians and Twins went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 35-32-5.

In their last 5 contests, the Guardians have just 2 wins, going 2-3. During this time, the team has a run differential of -19. If Cleveland is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.8 runs per game, compared to a season average of 4.43. On the season, Cleveland has won more than half of their series, going 11-8-5.

Pitching Matchup

Minnesota will roll with Chris Archer (2-3) as their starter. Through 14 appearances, Archer has an ERA of just 3.14 while averaging 4.08 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.216. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Archer is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.26 homers per 9 innings pitched. This season, he has struck out 19.0 of the batters he has faced. This has led to a per game average of 3.21. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.77 walks per outing.

The Cleveland Guardians will send Shane Bieber to the mound with an overall record of 3-4. Currently, Bieber has a strong ERA of just 3.18 while pitching an average of 6.07 innings per outing. Across his previous starts, opposing teams have put together a batting average of 0.25. So far, Bieber has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.74 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Shane Bieber has a strong K% of 26.0%, including a per game average of 6.29. Command has been a problem for Bieber, as he is giving up 2.01 walks per outing.

Minnesota vs Cleveland History

Today’s matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians will be their 11th meeting of the season. So far, the teams have each won 5 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 5-5. The average run total in these games is 8.74 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.8 runs. Last season, Minnesota picked up the series win, 11 games to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 8.74 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.58 runs per contest.

More Picks: Atlanta at Philadelphia recommended bet for 6/30/22 >>>

Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland’s last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
  • Cleveland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s AL Central showdown between Minnesota and Cleveland, look for the Guardians to come away with a win. Even though Shane Bieber took the loss in his last outing vs Boston, he only gave up 3 runs across 7 innings. Before that, Cleveland had won 5 straight games with Bieber on the mound.

Free MLB Pick: Guardians Moneyline

MLB Betting Guide

New to betting on baseball? We've got you covered! Our comprehensive how to bet on baseball article explains all the different types of wagers offered at the sportsbooks including money lines, over/unders, run lines, parlays and more! Also get tips and strategies to increase your odds of beating the bookies!