Braves vs. Phillies Best Bet 6/30/22

by | Last updated Jun 30, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Thursday, June 30th, 06:05 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: Bally Sports South
Money Line: Braves +105 / Phillies -125 (Get the best lines >>>)
Total Line: 8.0


Atlanta: Ian Anderson (6-4, 4.6)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (4-5, 2.98)

Braves Projected Lineup

Adam Duvall LF
Orlando Arcia 2B
Travis d’Arnaud C
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Marcell Ozuna LF
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Ian Anderson P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott 2B
Didi Gregorius SS
Matt Vierling RF
Odubel Herrera RF
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P


Atlanta Braves: 43-32-0 SU / OU 39-34-3 / Run Line W/L 39-37-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 39-36-0 SU / OU 42-32-2 / Run Line W/L 37-39-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, June 30th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, Atlanta picked up a 3 run win over the Phillies (4-1). Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Phillies to 1 run on 4 hits. The Braves lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 8 hits, leading to 4 runs. In the matchup, Atlanta was favored at -141.0 on the moneyline. Through 63 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 65.0%. Together, the Braves and Phillies stayed below the over-under line set at 9.0 runs. However, for the season, Atlanta still has an overall over-under record of 39-34-3.

The Braves come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +2. Atlanta comes into the game struggling on offense, averaging 3.6 runs per game over their last 5. This figure is down from their season average of 4.71. So far, Atlanta has won over half of their 24 series played, going 10-9-5.

Philadelphia will look to move on from a 3 run loss to the Braves, falling by the score of 4-1. Despite the losing effort, the team’s pitchers held the Braves to 4 runs and 8 hits. The Phillies’ offense ended the game with just 1 run on 4 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Philadelphia came into the game as the underdog, getting 118.0. In their 26 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 46.0%. With this result, the Phillies and Braves combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 over-under record at (42-32-2).

The Phillies come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -1 over their last 5 games. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 3.2 runs over their last 5 game. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 10-13-1.

Pitching Matchup

Ian Anderson gets the start for the Braves, with an overall record of 6-4. So far, Anderson has put together an ERA of 4.6. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.29 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.254. This season, Anderson has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 1.09 per 9 innings. On the season, Ian Anderson has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This includes a per game average of 4.64 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.36 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Philadelphia turns to starter Aaron Nola. For the year, he has a record of 4-5. Heading into the game, Nola has appeared in 15 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.98. On average, he pitches 6.41 innings per appearance. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.207 against the right-hander. Per 9 innings pitched, Nola is giving up 0.94 home runs. Per game, Aaron Nola is averaging 7.27, on a strikeout percentage of 28.9%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.21 walks per contest.

Atlanta vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 7th meeting of the season. So far, Atlanta is leading the season series, 4-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-2. The average run total in these games is 8.37 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.83 runs. Last season, Atlanta picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 9-10, with the average run total being 8.37 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.53 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • Atlanta is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia’s last 13 games at home
  • Philadelphia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s NL East matchup between Atlanta and Philadelphia, the Phillies have a slight edge on the moneyline. With Aaron Nola on the mound, look for Atlanta to struggle at the plate. Heading into the game, Nola has a WHIP of just .90 and is coming off a 10 strikeout performance vs San Diego. I like Philadelphia on the moneyline.

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