UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2 Picks
When: Saturday, August 15, 2026
Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
TV: Paramount +
by Loot of Predictem.com
Fight Analysis:
UFC 330 features a double-championship bill in a giant event from Philadelphia. Atop the bill is UFC Welterweight Champion Islam Makhachev, a man many believe is the top pound-for-pound fighter in MMA, taking on challenger Ian Machado Garry, a top contender at 170 pounds. Also on the bill is newly-crowned UFC Women’s Starawweight Champion Mackenzie Dern, who will be making the first defense of her title against challenger Gillian Robertson. Let’s break it down!
Islam Makhachev, 28-1 (5 KOs, 13 Submissions), (-320) vs. Ian Machado Garry, 17-1 (7 KOs, 1 Submission), (+260)—Odds by Bovada
Islam Makhachev defends his UFC Welterweight Title for the first time when he takes on Ian Machado Garry in the UFC 330 main event. It should be a good battle between these once-beaten battlers. Makhachev, 34, has won 16 in a row and will be going for the UFC consecutive-wins record in this fight. In his last fight, he beat Jack Della Maddalena for the 170-pound title after a successful title run at 155 pounds. He will be taking on a man 6 years younger who at 6’3″ will have several inches of advantage in height and reach.
Makhachev has been devastating, barely threatened as he has zoomed to the top of the sport, the latest in monsters who have come to the sport from the wrestling circles of Dagestan. And he really embodies the ethics we saw from Khabib Nurmagomedov with that imperturbable attitude and ultra-dominant wrestling. These guys aren’t easy to beat. To Machado Garry’s credit, he did beat an extreme ground-master in his last fight with a decision over former champion Belal Muhammad. This might represent an elevated proposition.
I like Machado Garry and I think he represents a different look at the very least. For welterweight, his height is fairly extreme. He’s a bit awkward and ungainly, but at the same time, it can be a real task trying to wrangle him to the ground. His takedown defense is pretty good, having seen some decent wrestling. Granted, Makhachev represents a different level, but for a guy having only his second title fight at welterweight, Makhachev has a big one on his hands and things might not come as easily for the reigning champion.
As we have seen recently, nothing is ever too solid in the UFC where today’s superstars become yesterday’s news overnight, but I don’t see that happening here with Makhachev. Ian Machado Garry is a good fighter and having gone the full 25-minute distance twice recently will certainly help. I just don’t see him being explosive enough or really compelling enough in any given area to trouble a beat like Makhachev. I suspect as the fight progresses, we will see Makhachev’s stamina and persistence start to pay off on a resilient but outgunned Machado Garry. I’ll go with the champion in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Islam Makhachev at -320 betting odds. And while I might entertain a price on an inside-the-distance ending for Makhachev closer to fight-night, I think the straight win-price, while high, isn’t bad for such a dominant champion taking on a very good, but perhaps not dominant-enough challenger.
Mackenzie Dern, 16-5 (8 Submissions), (-245) vs. Gillian Robertson, 17-8 (3 KOs, 9 Submissions), (+205)—Odds by Bovada
Mackenzie Dern defends her UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship against Gillian Robertson in the co-main event of UFC 330. A long and up-and-down tenure in the UFC for Dern culminated in her last fight when she beat the very capable Virna Jandiroba for the vacant 115-pound title in October. Robertson, two years younger at 31, has been through some of the same ups and downs, before embarking on a five-fight win streak that brought her right to the top of the 115-pound rankings.
At first glance, Robertson might not seem like that tough of a challenger, not all that well-known and with a spotty record. But with 9 of her wins by submission, she can really sneak in a hold and end a fight suddenly. And while 3 KOs doesn’t ring loudly, she has showcased better striking as of late against some pretty decent competition. She hasn’t been stopped in eight years.
While Robertson has suffered her own ups and downs, once being at 12-8 and on the precipice of being out of the UFC, to now fighting for a title, Dern is by no means infallible herself. She started off strong in the UFC, going 7-0 and winning 11 of her first 12. A bad 2-4 run threatened to short-circuit her career, before this latest three-fight streak righted the ship. Still from ’21 to ’24, she was losing fights and three wins doesn’t make her suddenly invincible.
Dern is unusual for a UFC champ, even in the women’s category, in that she is without a single KO win. She can finish fights, however, as half of her wins are by submission. Both of these women are gifted in the ground game, with many successes away from the MMA octagon in grappling. While Robertson has shown a greater tendency to let her punches fly, one has the feeling that this could come down to what happens on the ground. And let’s not forget that while Dern’s shots might not end fights, they do score points.
I see this as being a well-contested fight between two solid fighters with a lot on the line. Perhaps being champion can see Dern grow into the position, having gotten a lot of time to prepare for this fight. Her being acclimated to the 25-minute championship distance could also be of aid, being that this has the looks of a fight that could potentially go into the latter rounds. I see Dern grinding her way to a points win in a tough fight. I’m going with Dern.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Mackenzie Dern at -245 betting odds. I think while Robertson has shown she might be a better striker, that Dern’s striking and ground game, in addition to her proven stamina at this distance, will be enough to see her through to the finish line in a tough bout.
