Khamzat Chimaev enters his first title defense as a massive -575 favorite, but the betting market is debating if Sean Strickland’s veteran savvy can disrupt the champion’s wrestling-heavy game plan. Loot breaks down the 185-pound championship landscape to find the most profitable entry point for Saturday night in Newark.
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Picks
When: Saturday, May 9, 2026
Where: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
TV: Paramount+
UFC 328 features a double-championship card out of Newark, New Jersey, with UFC Middleweight Champion Khamzat Chimaev making the first defense of his title against former champion Sean Strickland. The title-fight action doesn’t end there, as the co-main event features another newly-crowned champion in Joshua Van. He will defend the UFC Flyweight title against an excellent challenger, Tatsuro Taira. Let’s break it down!
Khamzat Chimaev, 15-0 (6 KOs, 6 Submissions), (-575) vs. Sean Strickland, 30-7 (12 KOs, 4 Submissions), (+400)—Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
Khamzat Chimaev defends his 185-pound belt against former UFC Middleweight Champion Sean Strickland in the UFC 328 main event. Chimaev, 32, is coming off an August ’25 win over Dricus du Plessis for the title, finally getting his shot and delivering. The new champ now looks to stay unbeaten against Strickland, who at 35 was able to bounce back in his last fight with a nice win over Alexander Hernandez.
Both men’s route to this spot was circuitous. Chimaev, while unbeaten, had long health-related layoffs that really stymied his trajectory, before he smoothed out his path the last few years with some more consistent appearances. Strickland, meanwhile, has alternated wins and losses since beating Israel Adesanya for the title in ’23. He lost the belt to du Plessis, beat Paolo Costa, lost to du Plessis again, and then beat Hernandez. But we know what sometimes happens when you play that kind of common-opponent arithmetic, which would lead one to figure that Chimaev beating du Plessis, who twice beat Strickland would be a damning indictment on Strickland.
With the odds being so strongly in Chimaev’s favor with him going off at a robust -575 as of press time, it comes down to more than common opponents. Chimaev has largely been dominant, a wrestler without reproach who has quelled the striking attempts of many renowned fighters. He can thrive in a prolonged 25-minute battle, end a fight with strikes, or apply any number of fight-finishing holds. While Strickland does have other skills, he is more of a boxer, and it’s fair to say that Chimaev is the more-advanced MMA practitioner, with more routes of victory in his arsenal.
Toughness, good boxing, and power can be enough. And theoretically, Strickland could find Chimaev, get him in trouble, and finish him. I just think a series of conditions lead to this being a tall order for Strickland. At 35, his best fighting might be in the rearview. He can be a little on the slow side and lacks that game-changing dimension that you’d prefer to see in an upset candidate going against a dominant fighter such as Chimaev. I’m taking Chimaev in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Khamzat Chimaev at -575 betting odds. It’s a steep price, but an appropriate one considering the tall task that lies ahead for Strickland. Bovada also has some wagers on the fight ending inside the distance that could hold some value in what I suspect will be a stoppage win for Chimaev.
Joshua Van, 16-2 (8 KOs, 2 Submissions), (+150) vs. Tatsuro Taira, 18-1 (6 KOs, 8 Submissions), (-175)—Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van makes the first defense of his title against top challenger Tatsuro Taira on the UFC 328 co-main event. Van won the title in December of last year in a strange result, as defending champion Alexandre Pantoja injured his arm catching a kick from Van, forcing him to quit in 26 seconds and give up the belt to Van. Still, Van has been on a nice run with that being his 6th straight win. Perhaps it’s the nature of that title-winning triumph that has a lot of people not too optimistic about his chances here, but it’s also the fearsomeness Taira has shown during his UFC tenure.
With Van, 24, the second-youngest UFC champ ever, and Taira, 26, these are young guys to be competing in a UFC title match. Taira’s only setback was a debatable split decision loss to Brandon Royval in ’24. Other than that, he’s been on a roll, taking on a good roster of opponents lately, most ending in finishes. Taira’s routes to the winner’s circle are numerous, as he has ended fights with any number of different strikes and submissions. In losing to Roybal, he showed he can make it to the 25-minute limit, with the champion Van yet to reach the fourth round in any fight.
I understand the angle of those entertaining a position on Taira. He has been more-explosive, finishes more fights, and wins in a more clear-cut fashion. He is also more versatile, with Van winning all his fights in the UFC by decision or stoppage by punches. Taira can end a fight with punches too, but also with other strikes and holds. It makes sense. One shouldn’t, however, low-rate the rise and skills of Van. His moments of being super-impressive may be few, and winning the belt the way he won didn’t paint him in that glorious of a light, perhaps. He’s still a top-flight flyweight, and I’m not sure Taira has earned the right to be a no-brainer choice against 125-pounders of Van’s caliber.
Still, it seems Taira’s star shines brighter as a future star at this weight and perhaps beyond. Since that split decision loss, he seems to be a man on a mission—slightly sharper and more lethal. Van can be a tricky proposition, with his shiftiness, fight IQ, and innate knowledge of distance and angles. But Taira is also longer, with almost half a foot in reach, a massive edge at this low of a weight. I just find it difficult to picture Van getting through 25 minutes of this without adverse effect. I’m taking Taira.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Tatsuro Taira at -175 betting odds. While taking a challenger as a favorite can feel uncomfortable, I think Van still being unproven, combined with the enormous potential for Taira makes it a palatable move.
