Loot Levinson breaks down UFC Freedom Fights 250 with betting picks and fight analysis for the Topuria vs Gaethje and Pereira vs Gane matchups.
UFC Freedom Fights 250 Picks
When: Sunday, June 14, 2026
Where: White House, Washington, D.C.
TV: Paramount+
Fight Analysis:
In commemoration of America’s 250th birthday, the UFC will come to Washington, D.C. for a huge card on the South Lawn of the White House on June 14. Some logistical snafus prevented it from taking place on July 4, but this Sunday card on Flag Day promises big action with one of the deepest cards in recent memory.
In the main event, UFC Lightweight Champion Ilia Topuria defends his belt against interim champ and future Hall of Famer Justin Gaethje. In the co-main event, the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship is up for grabs, with former middleweight and light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira taking on former interim champ Ciryl Gane. Let’s break down the top two bouts up top!
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Pick
Ilia Topuria, 17-0 (7 KOs, 8 Submissions), (-800) vs. Justin Gaethje, 27-5 (20 KOs, 1 Submission), (+525)—Odds by Bovada
UFC Lightweight Champion Ilia Topuria defends his belt for the first time against Justin Gaethje. Topuria, 29, is undefeated and just won the 155-pound belt after previously winning the featherweight title. If he’s not the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, he’s pretty close. But he’s fighting a dangerous and bigger fighter in Gaethje, a career-long lightweight who has been providing violence in this sport at a high level for a dozen years.
Presumably, I’m not the only one who has underestimated Gaethje in his late-career work. Against favored Paddy Pimblett in his last fight, he was fairly dominant, winning on the cards with two scores of 49-46, despite a late push from Pimblett. Still, one keeps expecting that many years of a reckless style taking on the roster of fighters he has faced will resonate at some point, but the 37-year-old keeps getting it done.
With talks of retirement, along with how much fresher Pimblett was and with his package of skills, I couldn’t pull the trigger on Gaethje last time. Boy, was I wrong. And with four wins in his last five, Gaethje is having a nice late-career run at a time when you’d have thought he’d be retired or worn down.
Nothing against Gaethje or what he’s accomplished in this sport. A long run as WSOF 155-pound champion, along with a commendable UFC tenure in which he has the names of many big-time opponents on his ledger, speaks volumes. His ability to sustain it beyond a timeframe anyone could have imagined also carries weight.
But with Topuria, we’re dealing with an advanced MMA practitioner, one of the best if not the best in the sport. And in that context, it’s worth at least mentioning that Gaethje has never quite gotten over this hump. He has won the interim belt a few times, but in losing title bouts to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, he was twice submitted in short order, coming up woefully short.
For those looking for a highly-skilled and dangerous upset candidate, you can do a lot worse than Gaethje, a reliable producer of violence and, if anything, a fighter with a bit more size and vastly more experience at this weight. I just have a hard time envisioning Gaethje pulling this off, and I don’t see him getting through 5 rounds with the champion. I’m taking Ilia Topuria.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Ilia Topuria at -800 betting odds. As the fight nears and more wagers become available, I’ll also be entertaining various inside-the-distance wagers on Topuria. I feel Topuria is on another level, and that is, he gets threatened; it won’t be by members of the old guard at 155 pounds.
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane Pick
Alex Pereira, 13-3 (11 KOs), (-110) vs. Ciryl Gane, 13-2 (6 KOs, 3 Submissions), (-110)
In a very interesting matchup, former middleweight and light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira takes on former UFC interim titleholder Ciryl Gane for the interim Heavyweight Title. We will see if Pereira can pull off what would be an incredible feat, winning titles from middleweight all the way up to heavyweight. But in his first heavyweight battle, he’s being thrown in against one of the best in Gane, a difficult entrance exam indeed.
Pereira is incredible, with some of the more memorable performances in recent UFC history. But at heavyweight, one is forced to ask some difficult questions. It’s a big ask for someone who, as recently as 2023, was making middleweight poundage. In addition, despite his overall fearsomeness, he hasn’t been infallible, losing to Israel Adesanya and Magomed Ankalaev. He also beat those men, but it’s not like he is above reproach.
On the positive side for Pereira is that he’s a naturally large man. At six-four with a 79-inch reach, he isn’t giving up much length to Gane, though he will be giving up weight presumably. Gane is usually in the 245-250 range, while Pereira has never fought at above 205 pounds in the UFC.
Gane is very capable, with his only defeats coming at the hands of the fearsome duo of Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Against heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in September of ’25, eye pokes by Gane ended the fight in the first round, with a no-contest being declared.
The closeness of the odds tells the story, with both fighters going off at -110 as of press time. It’s a tough fight to pick—a fearsome killer at middleweight and light heavyweight in Pereira going against a gifted big man in Gane, who showed some durability in going the full five rounds with Ngannou, with his stoppage loss to Jones being by submission, something Pereira doesn’t have in his arsenal.
Betting against Pereira doesn’t come with any comfort. He’s a real killer in the octagon, and when he’s on point and motivated, which one would suspect he would be for this, he’s highly lethal and dangerous. I just think that his reputation might be shielding some from certain matchup aspects that shake out better for Gane.
One is that he is pretty resilient to strikes. Another is that he’s a menacing Muay-Thai practitioner in his own right, and we’ll see if Pereira can stand up to that as well as he stood up to attacks of the middleweights and light heavyweights he has beaten. I’m taking a whirl on Gane.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Ciryl Gane at -110 betting odds. I sense there being some value with the Bovada line of -110 for Gane, a highly-skilled battler who won’t go easy into that good night. I see his combination of skills, durability, and size giving Pereira an uphill evening.
