Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
Friday, August 28, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Empower Field at Mile High
Friday night’s preseason finale in Denver has one of the largest spreads on the entire Week 3 board, and the value is on the road team getting all those points.
The Broncos are 6.5-point home favorites over the Vikings with a total around 37. That’s a substantial number in preseason football, and it doesn’t fully reflect the reality that both starting quarterbacks are likely sitting this game out. When a preseason spread reaches nearly a full touchdown, that’s usually the market’s way of saying the home team has a significant advantage — but the personnel situation heading into this game tells a different story.
Let’s start with the confirmed QB rotations.
Bo Nix “probably won’t play” for the Broncos, according to Sean Payton at his Wednesday press conference. Kyler Murray is confirmed out for the Vikings — Kevin O’Connell has stated the Vikings will rest their starting quarterback. That’s both starting quarterbacks off the field, which is the fundamental setup for this game.
The Vikings’ backup situation is a bit uncertain. J.J. McCarthy is dealing with an ankle injury from Minnesota’s Week 2 game against the Ravens, and O’Connell said he’s “hopeful” McCarthy can start Friday but didn’t rule him out. McCarthy didn’t practice Wednesday (which was designed as a scrimmage), and Carson Wentz handled second-team reps. Max Brosmer is also in the mix. So we’re either getting an ankle-limited McCarthy in his first preseason action or Carson Wentz running the offense as a veteran backup.
The Broncos’ backup rotation isn’t dramatically better. Denver has been cycling through their non-Nix quarterback options across both preseason games, and while Sean Payton wants to see a “fast start” to the game — his exact quote was, “I don’t think we’ve really started fast here in my three years. I’m pretty sure we haven’t, so I think that’s going to be important” — that motivation from a head coach doesn’t translate into a starting quarterback taking the field.
When both starting QBs sit and backup rotations are cycling through the majority of the game, laying 6.5 points is a really big ask. Preseason games at these spread levels historically fall short. Backup quarterbacks generate turnovers, drives stall in the red zone, and preseason spreads that big can flip on a single missed field goal or interception returned to the wrong side of the field.
Both teams’ recent preseason performances also don’t support a blowout.
The Vikings scored just 3 points in Week 2 against the Ravens. That’s an offense that isn’t going to explode, but it’s also an offense that a Broncos team playing backup rotations can’t be counted on to dominate. The Broncos scored just 13 points in Week 2 against the Packers, losing 33-13. That’s an offense that hasn’t shown it can push a big number in preseason either. Combined last week output for these two teams was 16 total points — that’s not the profile of a Broncos team about to win by 7-plus without their starting QB.
Denver’s defense is undeniably strong. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks in 2025, and Vic Fangio’s system generates pressure at a high rate. But defensive strength suppresses point production on both sides of the ball — meaning even if Denver limits the Vikings, they won’t be scoring in bunches with backup QBs against a Vikings defense that just held Baltimore to 13 points.
The situation also has real value considerations for Minnesota. If J.J. McCarthy plays and gets his first real preseason snaps in, he’s a talented young quarterback who could get the Vikings offense moving in short bursts. If Carson Wentz plays, he’s a veteran backup with NFL starting experience. Either way, the Vikings have enough at the quarterback position to keep this game within a touchdown against a Denver team running its own backup rotation.
The 53-man roster deadline is Sunday, which adds another layer to how both teams approach this game. Payton has publicly emphasized “critical” reps for players fighting for roster spots. That means more evaluation snaps, less risk-taking, and more of a straightforward football rhythm than a blowout would suggest. Preseason evaluation games rarely produce 21+ point margins.
I looked at the total too. It’s around 37, and both teams have struggled to score with backup QBs. There’s a legitimate case for the Under given both starting QBs sitting and both offenses struggling. But the side offers cleaner value given how inflated the spread has become.
The Pick: Minnesota Vikings +6.5
