Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Pick 7/13/19
Washington Nationals (48-42) at Philadelphia Phillies (47-44)
When: 7:15 p.m., Saturday, July 13
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Moneyline: WAS +100/PHI -110 (GTBets)
Runline: Nats +1.5/Phils -1.5
Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin (7-5, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs. Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.74 ERA, 1.30 WHIP)
Well, well: the Nationals have recovered in dramatic fashion over the past three weeks to get themselves right back into the thick of the NL East race. It would have been easy to write the Nats off at the end of May when they sat eight games under .500, but they’ve been on a tear ever since May ended. They’ve won 16 of their past 20 and have gone 8-2 against the NL East in that stretch — including a 4-0 mark against Philadelphia. Not only have the Nationals pounded the Phillies during this stretch, but none of the four wins has even been close. Philly has been shut out twice, and only two of the Nats’ four wins over the Phils in the past month were even in save situations. Over this stretch, the Nationals have outscored the Phillies 19-6 during this string of games, which has been key in their run to second place in the division, ahead of the Phils.
One of the traditions of Citizens Bank Park is the ease of reaching the fence and finding what former Phillies pitcher Vicente Padilla referred to as the “(expletive) flowers” beyond the fence. But the Phillies don’t do that, hitting a mere 115 home runs in 91 games, ranking them 11th in the National League. Of the remaining four, only two of the squads play in parks that could reasonably be considered to be pitchers’ parks, which says some positive things about the Phillies’ pitching staff while saying that the Phils’ hitters just aren’t getting the job done at finding the short fences.
Over his past four starts, Nola has been dominant, giving up just two earned runs in his past 29.2 innings on the hill. All four starts came against NL East foes, and Nola put three of those in the win column for his team while giving up a mere 14 hits in the contests. But the one team that Nola hasn’t been able to solve from the East is his next opponent. In two starts against Washington, Nola has been incredibly hittable, giving up five home runs in a mere 9.1 innings of work against the Nats. Nola is a better pitcher than he was in April, but so too is Patrick Corbin, who has given up three earned runs against 28 innings in his past four starts.
One of the biggest reasons why the Nationals were able to catch the Phillies is because the Nationals have been able to beat the Phillies. For the season, Washington is 8-4 against Philadelphia, and with just seven games remaining during this season, the Phillies have to get that closer to a .500 mark if they want to find themselves on the front foot again in their race with each other.
- The Nationals have won seven of the past 10 from the Phillies in Philadelphia.
- The Phillies have lost Nola’s past four starts against Washington.
- The Phillies are 1-10 in their past 11 when the opponent allowed two runs or less in the previous game.
- The under is 7-1 in the Nationals’ past eight contests.
- The over is 7-0 when the Phillies are coming off a loss.
- The Nationals have won six of their past seven road games.
Tonight should be a perfect night for baseball at 71 degrees at first pitch from south Philadelphia.
The Phillies have been a good home team, and that’s one of the reasons they’re still in the race, rather than getting relegated to the Mets and Marlins duking it out for a fourth place in the division. But all rules seem to go out the window when the Nationals are involved. Philadelphia simply cannot get over this hump, and that has to change if the Phillies are going to remain a quality team.
That’s the main reason that I’ve got to go for Washington here. Not only are the Nationals playing very well right now, but they are facing an opponent that the Nationals’ players should be very confident about meeting because they’ve owned the Phils all season long. The Nationals can drastically create some distance between themselves and the Phillies here, and they’re hot. I think they’ll snag another victory here and set themselves up to really nip at Atlanta’s heels for first place. Give me the Nats here.
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