Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Expert Pick

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Date: Friday, June 9th, 7:20 ET
Location: Truist Park
TV: BSSE
Money Line: Nationals +170/Braves -207
Total Line: 9.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Atlanta Braves and the Nationals on Friday, June 9th at Truist Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Nationals vs. Braves Projected Lineup

	Batting Order	Position
Lane Thomas	1	RF
Luis García	2	2B
Jeimer Candelario	3	3B
Joey Meneses	4	DH
Dominic Smith	5	1B
Corey Dickerson	6	LF
Keibert Ruiz	7	C
CJ Abrams	8	SS
Alex Call	9	CF
Josiah Gray	–	SP




	Batting Order	Position
Ronald Acuña Jr.	1	RF
Matt Olson	2	1B
Austin Riley	3	3B
Sean Murphy	4	C
Eddie Rosario	5	LF
Ozzie Albies	6	2B
Marcell Ozuna	7	DH
Orlando Arcia	8	2B
Michael Harris II	9	CF
AJ Smith-Shawver	–	SP




Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Washington Nationals: 25-36 SU / OU 29-30 / Runline 36-25
Atlanta Braves: 38-24 SU / OU 34-24 / Runline 29-33

If the Nationals are going to climb out of last place in the NL East, they will need to turn things around with a win over the Braves. Heading into the game, the Nationals have lost four straight games and stand with an overall record of 25-36. On the road, the Nationals are 13-15 and 12-21 at home. The team’s overall series record is 6-11-2.

• The Nationals have four straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -0.8.
• The Nationals have been favored in 4.9% of their games and have runline records of 15-18 and 21-7 at home and on the road, respectively
• So far, the Nationals have an over/under record of just 29-30.

The Braves take on the Nationals in the middle of a five game winning streak and are leading the NL East on an overall record of 38-24. So far, they are 20-10 on the road and 18-14 at home. Atlanta’s overall series record stands at 13-5-2.

• The Braves have covered the runline in five straight games and have a season-long run margin of 1.1.
• The Braves have been favored in 83.9% of their games and have runline records of 11-21 and 18-12 at home and on the road, respectively
• The over has hit in 59% of the Braves’ 62 games at 34-24.

Pitching Matchup

 

Across 12 appearances, Josiah Gray has a slugging percentage allowed of .381 and enters with a WHIP of 1.40. His overall record is 4-5 on an ERA of 3.09. For the season, he has a total of 55 K’s, and is averaging 0.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Gray’s record on the road is 2-3 and 2-2 at home. This includes an ERA of 2.63 (road) and 4.17 (home), respectively.

In his last appearance against the Phillies, Josiah Gray gave up four runs on six hits while pitching 5 1/3 innings. Despite not factoring into the decision, Gray helped the Nationals secure an 8-7 victory.

AJ Smith-Shawver is coming off a short outing, throwing 2 1/3 innings while giving up zero runs on zero hits. Smith-Shawver took a no-decision in the Braves’ 8-5 win over the Diamondbacks.

Nationals vs. Braves Offense Outlook

The Nationals have played 61 games and are ranked 21st in the league with 4.3 runs per game. Washington ranks 23rd in home runs, having gone deep 48 times. Their average is .263, including .255 on the road and .258 at home.

Washington Nationals Top Hitters vs. Righties

 

Washington Nationals Top Hitters: Last Five Games

 

The Braves have played 63 games so far this season and are currently ranked 4th in the league with an average of 5.2 runs per game. In terms of home run hitting, Atlanta is 3rd, having hit the ball out of the park 105 times. Their overall batting average is .265, including .244 on the road and .264 at home.

Atlanta Braves Top Bats

 

Atlanta Braves Top Hitters: Last Five Games

 

Free MLB Pick

The Washington Nationals have lost four games in a row and seven of their last nine. In their last four games, they’ve scored three runs or less in three of those contests. They’ll have Josiah Gray on the mound, who from a distance, looks like he’s having a great season. When you peel a few leaves off the onion, you’ll see that he’s beaten up on a bunch of the worst hitting teams in the league and struggled vs. good teams, including today’s opponent, the Atlanta Braves. The Bravos lit Gray up on April first for 7 hits, 2 walks and 3 dongs over only five innings. Gray still sports a hefty 1.42 WHIP, despite most of his opponents being poor hitting teams.

Washington will be up against it offensively as the Braves will be unleashing mega-prospect AJ Smith-Shawver for his first MLB start. This kid is the real deal and has missed bats at every level in the minors. The Braves Brass were smart in making Smith-Shawver’s debut a short relief stint to subdue his first appearance nerves/jitters. He responded nicely, tossing 2.1 innings, allowing no hits and one walk, while fanning three hitters. The 20-year-old righty allowed less hits than innings pitched at each level of the minors and fanned 164 in only 110 innings. He had a 1.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 33 innings this season while playing in A, AA and AAA.

Should AJ Smith-Shawver struggle, we’ve got the girth of the Braves offense working for us, who has an unbelievable team batting average of .339 with 13 home runs over their last six games. They’ve averaged almost seven runs per game during that stretch and are 5-1 over those six games.

It’s not the brightest of moves to bet on a pitcher making his first career start, but there’s enough positive variables for Atlanta and enough negative variables for Washington to warrant betting the game as huge chalk. I’m not a whack job who thinks they can predict scores, but this has a 7-1 or 8-2 feel.

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