Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick 10/12/19

by | Oct 12, 2019 | mlb

Washington Nationals (93-69) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71), 10/12/19
Time: 4:08 pm ET Saturday, Oct. 12
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Listed Pitchers: Max Scherzer (12-7, 2.91 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs. Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.01, 1.40)
TV: TBS

Moneyline: Nationals -145/Cardinals +135
Over/Under: 7

The Washington Nationals continued their run as the hottest team in Baseball by taking the opener of this NL championship series Friday night in St. Louis. Can Washington take a 2-0 lead on the road when the teams meet again Saturday afternoon at Busch Stadium? And how are we playing this one with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened Washington and Scherzer at around -145 over St. Louis and Wainwright, with an over/under of seven runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Nationals vs. Cardinals Set-Up

Washington grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 2-0, cashing in as a +120 underdog on the MLB betting line. The Nationals scored one run in the second inning, and one in the seventh, and that was all they needed, as starter Anibal Sanchez and reliever Sean Doolittle combined to allow just one St. Louis hit all night, on the way to victory.

Washington rapped out ten hits Friday night, four for extra bases. But the Nats also left 13 runners on base.

With Friday’s victory, Washington is 5-2 in these MLB playoffs.

With Friday’s loss, the Cardinals are 3-3 in these playoffs.

St. Louis took the regular-season series from the Nationals five games to two.

Game 2 Starting Arms

Wainwright, by our strict standards, is 15/32 on quality starts this season. He ended the regular season with two bad outings over which he gave up 11 runs and 20 hits through 9 1/3 innings against Arizona and the Cubs. But he bounced back in very nice fashion last Sunday in Game 3 of that NLDS against Atlanta when he tossed 7 2/3 innings of four-hit, shutout ball, although St. Louis lost that game 3-1.

On the season, the Cardinals are 19-13 with Wainwright, 6-2 over his last eight starts.

In two starts this season against Washington, Wainwright gave up three runs – two earned - and 14 hits through 13 1/3 innings. The Cardinals won both those games.

Scherzer is 17/29 on quality start this year. He also ended the regular season poorly, giving up 12 runs through 17 2/3 innings over his last three starts, and then allowed three runs and two home runs through five innings in that National League wild-card game against Milwaukee, although the Nationals rallied to win that game 4-3. But he then threw a perfect inning of relief in Game 2 of that NLDS against the Dodgers, then threw seven innings of one-run ball in Washington’s 6-1 victory in Game 3 of that series.

On the season Washington is 16-13 with Scherzer, 3-0 over his last starts.

Over two starts this season against St. Louis Scherzer allowed eight runs and 15 hits through 13 2/3 innings. The Nationals lost both those games.

Game 2 Batting Splits

Washington batted .258/.337/.448 against right-handed pitching this season. St. Louis batted .245/.320/.412 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen posted an ML-worst 5.66 ERA this season and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing an .800 OPS. Washington relievers then allowed 14 runs in 15 innings of work in that NLDS against the Dodgers. But they did close out the victories in Games 4 and 5 of that series and did so again Friday night with 1 1/3 perfect innings.

The Cardinals pen put up a 3.82 ERA this season and a 1.22 WHIP while holding foes to a ML-low .670 OPS. St. Louis relievers then allowed seven ER through 14 2/3 innings in that NLDS against the Braves, then gave up one run through three innings Friday night.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Washington played 43-38 on the road this season.
  • Washington played 69-52 against right-handed starters this season.
  • St. Louis played 50-31 at home this season.
  • St. Louis played 73-55 against RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games this season.
  • Unders played 85-69 in Cardinals games this season.
  • Unders played 45-33 in games played at Busch Stadium this season.
  • Unders are 6-1-1 in Nationals-Cardinals games this season.
  • The Under is a combined 32-25 with Scherzer and Wainwright this season.

Free MLB Playoff Pick

It would be easy to give Scherzer the check-mark in the pitching match-up here, but Wainwright posted the better performance this season against these opponents. Also, while Washington might own an edge with the sticks, St. Louis gets the check-mark in the bullpen comparison. And while the Nationals are hot, we do believe the Cardinals will manage the split of these first two games at home. We’ll take St. Louis at the home dog price for our free MLB pick here.

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