White Sox vs. Guardians Game 1 Betting Predictions

by | Last updated Jul 12, 2022 | mlb

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Tuesday, July 12th, 01:10 ET

Location: Progressive Field

TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes

Money Line: White Sox -103 / Guardians -117 (Bovada – The BEST live betting platform on the web!)

Total Line: 8.0


Chicago: Davis Martin (1-2, 4.29)
Cleveland: Shane Bieber (3-5, 3.54)

White Sox Projected Lineup

Yoán Moncada 3B
Leury García SS
Gavin Sheets RF
Eloy Jiménez LF
Seby Zavala C
Luis Robert CF
José Abreu 1B
Tim Anderson SS
Andrew Vaughn 1B
Davis Martin P

Guardians Projected Lineup

Nolan Jones RF
Austin Hedges C
Franmil Reyes RF
Andrés Giménez 2B
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan LF
Amed Rosario SS
Shane Bieber P


Chicago White Sox: 41-44-0 SU / OU 41-40-4 / Run Line W/L 39-46-0
Cleveland Guardians: 42-42-0 SU / OU 40-39-5 / Run Line W/L 43-41-0

The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, July 12th at Progressive Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cleveland as the favorite (-117), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The White Sox come into this matchup having suffered a 4 run loss to the Guardians (8-4). On their way to giving up 8 runs, the White Sox staff allowed 12 hits. On offense, the White Sox finished with 4 runs on 8 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -115.0. Through 51 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 53.0%. Together, the White Sox and Guardians combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 9.0 runs. This result is part of a larger trend, as Chicago has had the over hit in more than half of their games (41-40-4).

The White Sox will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Even with this record, their scoring differential during this time is +3. During this stretch, the offense is averaging 4.4 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 4.28. Chicago’s overall series record is just 11-13-4.

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off a big win over the White Sox by a score of 8-4. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the White Sox to 4 runs and 8 hits. In the victory, the Guardians came up with 12 hits and 8 runs. Heading into action, Cleveland was the favorite at -105.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 44 games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Guardians and White Sox combined to surpass the line of 9.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 40-39-5.

In their last 5 contests, the Guardians have just 2 wins, going 2-3. Even though Cleveland has notched just 2 in their last 5 games, they still have a positive run differential in this stretch (+5). Despite their struggles in the win column, the offense has averaged 5.4 runs over their last 5 games. This is an improvement over their season-long mark of 4.36. On the season, Cleveland has won more than half of their series, going 13-11-4.


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Pitching Matchup

Chicago will roll with Davis Martin (1-2) as their starter. To date, Martin has an ERA of 4.29 while lasting an average of 4.2 innings per appearance. Martin comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.238. Home runs have been an issue for Martin, as he is allowing an average of 1.29 per 9 innings pitched. Martin has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 3.4 K’s per game on a K rate of 19.0%. Throughout the season, Martin has avoided walking batters, allowing just 3.0 per contest.

In today’s game, Cleveland turns to starter Shane Bieber. For the year, he has a record of 3-5. To date, Bieber has an ERA of 3.54 while lasting an average of 6.01 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.251. So far, Bieber has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.65 home runs per 9 innings. Overall, Shane Bieber has struck out 25.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 6.19 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.23 walks per outing.

Chicago vs Cleveland History

Today’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians will be their 7th meeting of the season. Cleveland holds the edge in the series at 5-1. Through 6 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-2, with the average run total sitting at 8.16 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.0 runs. Last season, Chicago picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-9, with the average run total being 8.16 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.79 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

Chi White Sox is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Chi White Sox is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s matchup between Chicago and Cleveland, the Guardians are the slight favorite on the moneyline. However, I feel strongly about Cleveland coming away with a win, as the team’s offense should have no problem generating runs vs Davis Martin. Look for Chicago’s offense to struggle vs Shane Bieber, who held the White Sox to just 1 run on 4 hits in his first appearance vs the team.

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