RBD triples up on tonight’s WNBA slate with plays on all three games — Liberty at Fever, Fire at Lynx, and Mystics at Valkyries — backed by B2B trends, T1 Under fades, and a T2 Over fade.
New York Liberty at Indiana Fever
Portland Fire at Minnesota Lynx
Washington Mystics at Golden State Valkyries
Three Picks on the Total
Three games on the schedule today and I have money on all three. Not the way I like to play but I have to do with the numbers tell me to.
And unfortunately they all tip off within a half hour of each other so I can’t stagger my bets and try and bank an early unit and then lay off the later games.
First up, New York at Indiana.
The Caitlin’s played last night and you know what that means.
WNBA teams when playing Game Two of B2B’s, Ov/Un:
2024: 18-12, 60%
2025: 17-6, 73%
2026: 7-1, 87%
Combined: 42-19, 68%.
I’ve already banked a few from this play so I have to ride it again. Not too comfortable with this one though because Indiana was in the same play a couple nights ago and I stayed off it and it went Over. This puts me in the spot I hate – jumping on a play that I stayed off of after it won in the previous game.
Also, last night’s Indy game went Over and I prefer the spot when Game One was an Under, it has a slightly higher W percentage.
Still, you can’t ignore 42-19 over the past three years, so I’m on it.
Next up, Portland at Minnesota.
This game qualifies as a T1 Under.
T1 Under has a record of 10-17.
That’s a 63% Fade, good enough for me to take the Over in this one.
And the team specific numbers look good, too.
The Portland Fire have been in this T1 Under spot six times this season. Four of six have gone Over.
The Minnesota Lynx have been in this spot three times this season. Two of three have gone Over.
My final play, Washington at Golden State, qualifies as a rare T2 Over spot.
The record for this play is 1-4 so I have to Fade it.
The line sucks though. It opened at 150 and has already been bent down to 148′.
This is probably the lowest total I’ve played all season but at least it comes in a game where I have the number one defense in the league with the Valkyries.
These two played two weeks ago and Golden State held Washington to just 49 points.
I’m going to need a similar effort from the Valkyries tonight.
My plays:
NY/Indiana Ov 179′
Port/Min Ov 174′
Wash/GS Un 149
Recap: 1-0
Record: 17-19
Review:
LA and Chicago combined for a measly 31 points in the first quarter last night.
Then Chicago scored 33 themselves in a 52 point second quarter. In the end, Q1 killed me and I fell short of the Over by four points.
