Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, October 26, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Tropicana Field
The Rays are -120 favorites at home with the Brewers right around even money, and the total is 7. My play is Under 7 (-110).
Freddy Peralta spent eight seasons in Milwaukee. Tonight he has to beat that team to get Tampa Bay back in this series, and nobody knows his stuff better than the guys in the other dugout. That’s the story everybody will talk about. The bet I like is simpler: neither lineup has shown it can beat good pitching for nine innings, and both teams have it lined up tonight.
Two games, two runs. Milwaukee won Game 1, 3-2, and Game 2, 5-4, so the whole series has been decided by two runs. Game 2 looks like a slugfest in the box score, but it wasn’t. The Rays scored four runs in the top of the first after a Cooper Pratt error and a Liam Hicks two-run homer, then put up zeroes for the next eight innings. Milwaukee came back one run at a time and won it on Pratt’s single in the seventh. “It’s nine innings for a reason,” Pratt said. Through two games, Tampa Bay is hitting .222 with 19 strikeouts and four walks.
Fastball Freddy is back, and he’s at home. The Brewers traded Peralta to the Mets in January, and the Mets moved him to the Rays at the deadline. Since August 26 he is 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA over 10 games, and he was the ALCS MVP. He’s been even better under the Tropicana Field dome. In seven starts there since the trade, he has a 1.45 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. This postseason he has allowed two runs in 16 2/3 innings.
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The lefty the Rays can’t stand. Robert Gasser opened the season at Triple-A Nashville, and now he’s starting a World Series game. Since late August he has a 1.51 ERA across eight appearances, and he’s allowed one run in nine innings over two playoff starts, including five scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium in the NLCS. Gasser doesn’t throw hard. He sits in the low 90s and mixes five pitches around a good sweeper. This matchup still suits him, because the Rays haven’t hit lefties all year. Against left-handers they slashed .248/.315/.364, a .679 OPS that ranked 25th of 30 teams, and they don’t have the power to punish his mistakes.
Then the Milwaukee bullpen takes over. Brewers relievers have a 1.24 ERA through 10 postseason games. Aaron Ashby hasn’t allowed a run in 15 2/3 October innings, and Trevor Megill got Saturday off while Ashby finished a five-out save. With Sunday’s off day, Pat Murphy has everybody available, and he’s had no problem pulling a starter early to go to the pen. Tampa Bay is in good shape too. Closer Bryan Baker hasn’t pitched in this series, and the Rays had a full day of rest.
The case against me. Peralta walks people. His walk rate is around 10 percent this season, and he has seven walks against 12 strikeouts in the postseason. Milwaukee’s lineup is patient and well prepared for him. The Brewers also hit him hard once already this year: on July 20, when he was with the Mets, they scored seven earned runs against him in 5 1/3 innings at American Family Field. Gasser gives up a lot of fly balls, and one bad inning from either starter could push this over 7, the way the first inning of Game 2 almost did. I’d still play the Under at 7 up to about -125. At 6.5 I’d pass.
Projected score: Brewers 3, Rays 2
The Pick: Under 7 (-110)
Two good starters, two deep bullpens, and two lineups that have scored a combined 14 runs in two games, so take the Under and bring some extra bankroll into Monday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Under 7 and the rest of your World Series picks.
