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World Series Game 1 Pick: Dodgers at Red Sox

by | Oct 23, 2018 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox 10/23/18

Time: 8:05 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Listed Pitchers: Clay Kershaw (LA) vs. Chris Sale (Bos)
TV: Fox
Moneyline: Dodgers +130/Red Sox -140 (Best Odds)
Over/Under: 7.5

Major League Baseball offers up a World Series for the ages, with two of the most storied franchises in baseball history. How are we playing Game 1 of this Fall Classic with our daily free MLB picks?

World Series Game 1 MLB Betting Odds

Game 1 betting odds opened the Red Sox at around -150, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. The early betting action then dropped that line about a dime, to around -140.

Boston could also be found getting around +145 giving the run and a half on the run line.

Game 1 Set-Up

The Dodgers won the NL West this season at 91-71, beating Colorado in a one-game playoff for the division title. Los Angeles then dispatched of Atlanta three games to one in an NLDS, then just outlasted Milwaukee in the NLCS four games to three, clinching the pennant with a 5-1 Game 7 victory at Miller Park Saturday night.

So the Dodgers are 8-4 in these playoffs.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, won the AL East at 108-54, the best record in the Majors in the last 17 seasons. Boston then dispatched of the Yankees three games to one in an ALDS, then beat defending World Series champion Houston four games to one in the NLCS, winning the last three games on the Astros’ home turf.

So the Sox are 7-2 in these playoffs.

These teams last met two seasons ago, when LA took two of three games from Boston at Dodger Stadium. But that’s already a long time ago.

Game 1 Starting Arms

Southpaw Sale (12-4, 2.11) finished 17/27 on quality starts this during the regular season, but is 0/2 in these playoffs. Ten days ago in Game 1 of that ALCS against Houston Sale allowed two runs on one hit and four walks through four innings of a 7-2 Red Sox defeat. And in three appearances in these playoffs, he’s allowed four runs and six hits through 10 1/3 innings, with 14 strikeouts against six bases on balls.

On the season the Boston is 19-10 with Sale, 1-1 in these playoffs.

This will be Sale’s first start against the Dodgers since 2012 when he was with the White Sox. And that was an eon ago.

Fellow lefty Kershaw (9-5, 2.73) finished 21/26 on quality starts this season, and is 2/3 in these playoffs. Saturday he closed out Game 7 of the NLCS with a perfect ninth inning in relief, striking out two, and in these playoffs, he’s allowed five ER and 11 hits through 19 innings, with 16 strikeouts against four walks.

On the season the Dodgers are 18-11 with Kershaw, 2-1 in these playoffs.

This will be Kershaw’s first-ever start against the Red Sox.

Sale held a couple of short statistical edges on Kershaw during the regular season, but Kershaw has been the better pitcher as of late. We’re calling this pitching match-up a wash.

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Game 1 Batting Splits

Los Angeles posted a .240/.324/.409 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup also led the National League in scoring this year.

Boston posted a .250/.325/.395 split against lefties this year. The Red Sox also led the Majors in scoring this season.

We’re gonna call the splits with the sticks a push for Game 1.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season. This unit has also allowed just six ER and 27 hits through 41 innings of work in these playoffs.

The Boston pen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. This unit has allowed 15 ER and 26 hits through 37 1/3 innings in these playoffs.

We’ll give LA a short edge in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

Overs are 39-38 in games played at Fenway Park this year, which are averaging 9.7 total runs per.

Totals are 3-6-3 on Dodgers games in these playoffs.

Totals are 6-3 on Red Sox games in these playoffs.

Free MLB World Series Picks

We’re calling this game a near-pick ’em on our own MLB betting line, which means we see betting value on the underdog. So we’re going with Los Angeles for our free MLB pick on Game 1 of this World Series.

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