Yankees vs. Phillies Analysis & Prediction 8/6/20

by | Aug 6, 2020 | mlb

New York Yankees (9-2) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2-4), 8/6/20

Time: 6:05 pm ET Thurs, Aug. 6

Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Listed Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 1.59) vs. Zach Eflin (10-13, 4.13 in 2019)

TV: YES, NBCSP

Moneyline: Yankees -150/Phillies +135 (Intertops - Deposit $25 and get an extra $50 FREE when you sign up through the link on our review page! (Must use bonus code ROOKIE200)

Over/Under: 9.5

Following a postponement and a doubleheader comprised of two seven-inning games, the Yankees and Phillies conclude their four-game interleague series Thursday evening in Philly. New York took the opener Monday night but had its seven-game winning streak snapped Wednesday. How are we playing Thursday’s contest for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened New York at around -155 over Philadelphia, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Both figures were holding steady in early betting action.

The Yanks could also be found getting around +105, giving the run and a half on the run line.

Yankees vs. Phillies Set-Up

New York took the opener of this series Monday night 6-3. Tuesday’s game was then rained out, setting up a doubleheader of seven-inning games Wednesday. Philadelphia then took the first game 11-7, snapping the Yankees’ seven-game winning streak. But New York bounced back to take Wednesday’s nightcap 3-1.

New York won Monday as a -280 favorite with Gerrit Cole, covering against the run line at a price of -145. Philadelphia then won Wednesday in a game that went off as a pick ’em. The Yankees then took the second game Wednesday at -135 and again beat the run line, this time at a price of +170.

At 9-2 overall, New York leads the AL East by four games over Baltimore and Toronto. The Yanks also trail a hot Minnesota by a half-game in the battle for the best record in the American League.

At 2-4, Philadelphia trails division-leading Miami by three games in the NL East.

These teams met most recently back in 2018 when New York took two of three games from the Phillies in Philly.

On the personnel front, the Yanks are operating without closer Aroldis Chapman, who continues to rehab after testing positive for C-19 last month. But so far, his absence hasn’t mattered too much.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Eflin is making his first start of this season Thursday. Philadelphia delayed his first action after he experienced back spasms a couple of weeks before this season opened last month.

Last year Eflin hit 14/28 on quality starts while posting a 1.35 WHIP, which ain’t too great. Philly went 11-17 when Eflin started last year.

In his only career start against the Yankees back in 2018 Eflin tossed seven scoreless innings in a
3-0 Philadelphia victory.

Lefty Montgomery is making his second start of this season. Last Friday, he held Boston to one run and five hits through 5 2/3 innings, with one walk and four strikeouts of a 5-1 New York win.

Montgomery is battling his way back from TJ surgery, which caused him to miss most of the 2018-19 seasons.

This will be Montgomery’s first-ever start against the Phillies, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .264 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .347 team OBP and an ML-best .502 slugging percentage. The Yankees also lead the Majors in home runs with 23.

Philadelphia is batting just .182 vs. left-handed pitching this season, but with a .368 OBP and a .477 slugging percentage.

More Picks: Astros vs. D’Backs >>>

MLB Betting Trends

  • New York played 46-35 on the road last year.
  • Philadelphia played 49-32 at home last year.
  • New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters last year.
  • Philadelphia played 21-16 against left-handed starters last year.

Totals Report

  • Totals are split 5-5 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are 3-2 in Phillies games this season.
  • Unders played 42-36 in games played at Citizens Bank Park last season.
  • Unders played 14-12 in Eflin’s starts last year.

Free Yankees at Phillies Pick

We’ll call Thursday’s pitching match-up a push, but we give New York our handicapping check-marks in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, even without Chapman. So we like the Yankees here. And the way they’re hitting the ball, we don’t have any qualms about chasing a better price and betting New York against the run line. Baseball has been crazy this season. Sometimes it’s best to skip making a pre-game play and instead roll with live in-game wagering. For one of the best live betting platforms on the web, check out BetOnline. Nice bonus offers too!