Yankees vs. White Sox Field of Dreams Pick

by | Aug 12, 2021 | mlb

New York Yankees (63-51) vs. Chicago White Sox (67-48

When: 7:15 p.m., Thursday, August 12

Where: Field of Dreams, Dyersville, Iowa

Moneyline: NYY +150/CHW -160 (Find the best sportsbooks >>>)

Runline: Yankees +1.5 /White Sox -1.5

Total: 9.5

Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney (7-8, 5.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs. Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.04 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)

One Shot Deal

Welcome to baseball in the cornfields of Iowa, as MLB decided to take advantage of nostalgia from Field of Dreams to place a baseball game a mile from the site where the movie was filmed. That could make betting on this game a challenge because there’s no way to know how these players are going to react to such a unique setting.
One thing that won’t be much of an adjustment is playing in front of a small, intimate crowd because both teams have gotten used to that throughout the pandemic. This crowd will be a sold-out situation, but because of a lack of space and a lack of teams in Iowa to use it (Dyersville isn’t close to anything in the Hawkeye State; the nearest minor league team is 63 miles away in Cedar Rapids), the stadium is held to 10,000 people, creating a situation much like playing in a minor league playoff game.

Bronx Adjustment

The Yankees decided to buy at the deadline, and now it’s looking like a reasonable move, given that they’ve shaved the deficit to two games back of the Red Sox and three behind the Athletics. New York probably isn’t making up the deficit on Tampa Bay, but so far, the Yankees’ gamble has seemed to work.

However, the jury is still out on whether Andrew Heaney was the right addition for the Yankees, as his problem of failing to keep the ball in the park seems to have traveled with him to the East. So far, Heaney has given up four earned runs per start, and his first start saw all four scored via solo home run against the Orioles. His past two starts have stayed under the total because the numbers have been set pretty high, but the fact that Heaney usually comes out in six innings or less means that the first-five total is likely a strong play.

More Picks: Experts give out their top plays >>>

One and Done

Consistency, thy name is Lance Lynn. The White Sox hurler has proven a fantastic fit for Chicago’s South Side, as his ERA has dropped 1.5 runs from when he pitched in Texas. Part of that is because Lynn has a much stronger team behind him and doesn’t have to worry about fielding mistakes the way he did with the Rangers, but part is because he’s simply coming into his own as a pitcher and is having one of the best seasons of his career.
Over his past seven starts, Lynn has held the opposition to one run or less in six starts, and it’s been a rare instance to see opponents push more than three runs across against the White Sox when he takes the ball. That could make the under an excellent play in this situation, especially because the field is actually going to play a little bit bigger than the White Sox’s usual home. The cornfield in the left is five feet further back than Guaranteed Rate Field, which might not help the cause of the light-hitting Yankees.

Betting Trends

  • The Yankees are 7-2 in their past nine games overall.
  • The Yankees are 36-17 in their past 53 against the AL Central.
  • The White Sox have won their past four series openers.
  • The White Sox are 5-0 in their past five matchups against the AL East.
  • The under is 6-0 in the Yankees’ past six games as an underdog.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ past five games following a win.
  • The under is 5-0 in the White Sox’s past five games against a left-handed starter.
  • The under is 10- 3 in the White Sox’s last 13 Thursday games.
  • The under is 12-5 in the teams’ past 17 matchups.
  • The Yankees have won five straight meetings with the White Sox.

Weather Report

MLB couldn’t really have picked a much worse day for nostalgia. Thanks to humidity in the north, it’s going to be a muggy day in eastern Iowa, with temperatures hitting 87 degrees at the first pitch and a real feel of 96 degrees. Wind will blow at 9 miles per hour toward first base.

Dan’s pick

The Yankees have had a lot of success against the White Sox in recent meetings, but they also haven’t faced off against Lynn, who has been almost automatic this season as long as his team gives him the run support that he needs. The Sox have won five of Lynn’s past six starts, and the Yankees don’t really hit well enough to do enough damage against Lynn here.

I’ll take the Sox and pair it with the under. Note: If you’ve got some extra time, please consider checking out my college football over/under season wins predictions!

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