2023 Coca-Cola 600 Race Analysis & Value Picks
Date: Sunday, May 28, 2023
Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway
Time: 6 pm ET
Channel: FOX
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
If you wanted the Kyle Larson show, you got one! The All-Star turned into a runaway for Kyle Larson, who gapped the field by better than 10 seconds at many points. Out of the 200 laps, Larson led 145 of the last 146 of the entire race. He also won the Craftsman Truck Series race the day before. During that race, he led 138 of 252 laps. Larson is just good on this grassroots track. That being said, it was a split on whether people enjoyed it or not. I think the main problem for those that didn’t necessarily enjoy it was that there was so much hype and buildup surrounding this race just to see a lot of long green flag runs. Here’s the thing, though. Although it’s an older track that hasn’t been repaved, it’s hard to pass on, and it has always lent itself to long green flag runs, with the leader usually running away with the race. It’s been since 1996 that the NASCAR Series has run here, but really nothing has changed other than updates to the stands and concessions. The race was clearly dominated by long green flag runs. Tires made a big difference, as predicted. And passing was difficult to an extent.
I say that because Kyle Larson drove through the field from the back to the front and managed to pass an enormous amount of cars to get there. It was like his card was another dimension, though. He clearly had the best car of the day and the only car that was dialed into that level. To that point, maybe it’s the driver. Maybe he is just *that* good. Larson has a knack for these older tracks, and Wilkesboro is no exception. Somewhat surprising was Bubba Wallace coming in 2nd place, although he was my dark horse pick. Unsurprising was his behavior during his post-race interview, where he proceeded to flip the bird on national television. I’m a little surprised that NASCAR didn’t decide to penalize him, to be honest. There have been plenty of drivers making gestures or using profane language in the heat of the moment penalized extensively. Regardless, Wallace made a decent charge to end up as runner-up. He was followed by Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, and Chase Elliott to round out the top five spots. Ryan Blaney, Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones, Ty Gibbs, and Joey Logano finished out the top ten. Suarez had a good run early on but just couldn’t deal with the tight conditions of his car as the race wore on. Ross Chastain was the 11th-place driver who really didn’t hit on much throughout the entire race. For someone who was predicted to do very well under these conditions, he struggled with his car’s setup all night.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
I don’t believe that will be the case for this team, as they all head to Charlotte for possibly the largest event of the year. If nothing else, it’s definitely the longest race of the year with certainly the most patriotism on this Memorial Day Weekend. The Coca-Cola 600 is next on the schedule, with 400 laps slated to be run around this intermediate track. This 1.5-mile asphalt quad-oval is a cookie-cutter intermediate with 24 degrees of banking in the runs and 5 degrees on the straights. This track is a place where track position is so important. Drivers need to get out and stay out front here, with little room for error on pit road. All too often on these intermediates, we’re seeing drivers with pit road penalties that are causing them more woes than anything when it comes to remaining in contention for the win. Maintaining pit road speed and also maintaining control of equipment is crucial here. We’ve seen quite a few uncontrolled tires, causing a multitude of penalties this year, along with the usual speeding on or (more commonly) off-pit road. It’s easy to do with such a big pit road at some of these places.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at Charlotte, there are a few things to keep your eyes on. The number one thing to keep your eyes on is the No. 5 Hendrick car. With Larson coming off a win from the All-Star, he’s sure to be riding with confidence heading into Charlotte. It also doesn’t hurt that in his last two starts at Charlotte; he’s managed 2 top 10s, with one of those finishes being a win. He’s been your best active driver since 2020. Other drivers that we have to watch if we’re looking solely at the most recent stats are Kevin Harvick, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Busch. For me, Chase Elliott is the best of that bunch as the only other driver than Larson with a win. Harvick is sitting 2nd best with average finish, but he’s struggled a little bit this year. I’d love to see him win it, with this being his last full season, but I just don’t see it panning out with the competition the way it is right now. Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski are the only other two drivers with wins recently. If we look at the culmination of all drivers over all of their races at Charlotte, it might surprise you to see Tyler Reddick leading the pack with an average finish of 9.3. Harrison Burton follows suit with only one race here under his belt and an 11th-place finish. Suffice to say; I think that we are going to see a lot of promise out of Larson and Elliott this weekend. Those guys are going to be tough to beat. Let’s take a look at your potential winners and their odds at MyBookie heading into this weekend’s big race:
- Winner: Kyle Larson +540
- Mid-Range Pick: Tyler Reddick +1525
- Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe +5200
Briscoe only has two starts here, but in those starts, he’s managed a 13.5 place average and finished both races in their entirety. That’s something at some of these bigger tracks. With his continued confidence building this year and some pretty solid finishes to boot. He’s had some struggles, but this seems to be a year where he’s finding his feet. Tyler Reddick is just solid here. He’s got quite a few intermediate starts to his name at this point, and he’s only getting better. Look for Reddick to be in contention throughout the evening. If Larson and his team bring a car to Charlotte anywhere remotely close to what they brought to the All-Star Race, they will have this thing buttoned up before it even starts. With Larson’s continued success on the intermediates, this should be a breeze for him. He will have to battle off Chase Elliott if Elliott returns in prime form. I think that Elliott is still struggling some from his injury, and it is showing in his driving and finishes. But as the week’s go on, I expect to see some wins coming back for that team. That will be a welcomed circumstance if for nothing else, the points since he’s behind with the situation with his injury. Let’s see how everyone is sitting in the points as a reminder heading into Charlotte.
2023 NASCAR Cup Series Standings
- Ross Chastain
- Christopher Bell
- Kevin Harvick
- Denny Hamlin
- William Byron
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Ryan Blaney
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Larson
- Tyler Reddick
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- Chris Buescher
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Bubba Wallace
- Chase Briscoe
The All-Star didn’t do anything to the standings, so the drivers are coming into Charlotte with an opportunity to make some changes. Chastain is still our leader, but Charlotte is not generally kind to him. He tends to struggle here, and after the issues with his car at the All-Star, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them still having a hard time. Who knows, though? Maybe he’ll fight back and surprise us all. Or maybe he’ll just hit someone else and not surprise us and make another enemy. Either way, it’s entertaining. This weekend is bound to be a good race with excitement in the air. Stay tuned for a jam-packed weekend full of patriotism and great racing as these guys head to Charlotte Motor Speedway!
