Ms. V breaks down the NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover with her top pick, mid-range value, and dark horse prediction for Sunday’s Monster Mile showdown.
Race: NASCAR All-Star Race
Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Track: Dover Motor Speedway
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
There’s no question that Shane van Gisbergen is the best road course driver on the roster right now. I’ll even defend the argument that he is the best road course racer of all time.
Our top pick, SVG, secured his first win of the season and the seventh of his career, finishing more than seven seconds ahead of Michael McDowell in what turned into an unreal late-race charge. SVG had a 29-second deficit on the leader with only 18 laps remaining. If you want to talk about daunting, he wasn’t here to hear it.
SVG drove through the field, picked off drivers one by one, and eventually left the entire field in the dust. Crew chief Stephen Doran played a major role in the win with a short-pit strategy that helped SVG gain valuable track position at Watkins Glen.
Michael McDowell followed a similar path and looked like he might have a chance to challenge the notoriously strong road course racer, but it was all in vain. McDowell was noticeably disappointed, but he has plenty to be proud of after several challenging weeks. A runner-up finish means a lot to that team right now, and McDowell drove an impressive race.
Connor Zilisch also looked like he was having a fantastic day until a late flat tire dropped him to a disappointing 20th-place finish after posting the fastest lap of the day.
Ty Gibbs finished third, followed by Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick. Austin Dillon, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, Austin Cindric, and John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the top 10.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams return to the traditional oval at Dover Motor Speedway for a FANtastic weekend of racing in the NASCAR All-Star Race. I’m especially excited because this will be my first time experiencing both Dover and an All-Star Race, so it’s bound to be a great time.
Dover is a unique experience from the looks of it. Affectionately known as “The Monster Mile,” this place is a 1-mile concrete oval with 24 degrees of banking in the turns and 9 degrees on the straights.
Tires are a bear here. The concrete surface tends to cause trouble for drivers throughout the race, and they also have to pay close attention to the line they run to avoid picking up debris on their tires. It can be a challenging balance.
The concrete surface also tends to lend itself to looser conditions, where we often see drivers suddenly lose grip and spin. This race will likely come down to who can manage their tires, run the smartest line, and maintain control throughout the afternoon.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at Dover, it’s hard to ignore the veterans with experience. Most notably, that puts Denny Hamlin right near the top of the list.
We don’t typically see much in the way of rookies or young guns contending for the win at this place. Dover requires a certain level of finesse that some of the younger drivers simply haven’t mastered yet. If you’re looking to compare the latest NASCAR odds before locking anything in, checking the lines at Bovada can help give you a feel for where the market is leaning heading into race day.
Let’s take a look at the potential winners heading into this weekend’s race.
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+400)
It’s hard to ignore Hamlin’s average finish of 2.3 at Dover. It’s even harder to ignore that he has won two of the last three races he has run there.
Hamlin has three career wins, nine top-five finishes, and 17 top-10 finishes at Dover. It’s no secret that he has a knack for this track. I expect to see him running up front most of the day and in victory lane before it’s all said and done.
Mid-Range Pick: Ty Gibbs (+1400)
Gibbs is hot right now. In his last three starts at Dover, he has one top-five finish and two top-10 finishes, with no result worse than 13th.
This year, he continues to prove why he is someone to pay attention to. He is coming off a third-place finish at Watkins Glen and already has a win at Bristol this season. Gibbs is going to be someone to watch, and he might just get his first Monster Mile trophy on Sunday.
Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez (+10000)
Suarez is a somewhat unconventional pick here, but he is not someone to ignore.
He has 13 career starts at Dover with one top-five finish and five top-10 finishes. Suarez seems to perform better at Dover than he does at many other shorter tracks, and he led six laps here last year.
Suarez could use a strong finish, and he may be able to come away with exactly that if he brings a strong car this weekend.
Suarez is sitting 14th in points right now and looking for an opportunity to move up, along with several other drivers. We didn’t see a ton of movement in the standings after The Glen, which was a little surprising.
Here’s where everyone is sitting heading into Sunday’s race at Dover:
- Tyler Reddick
- Denny Hamlin
- Chase Elliott
- Ryan Blaney
- Chris Buescher
- Ty Gibbs
- Carson Hocevar
- Kyle Larson
- Brad Keselowski
- Bubba Wallace
- Christopher Bell
- William Byron
- Ryan Preece
- Daniel Suarez
- Austin Cindric
- Shane van Gisbergen
SVG was clearly the biggest winner of the weekend, climbing three spots back into the top 16. Joey Logano lost another position, falling to 18th and into an even deeper hole that he will have to climb out of.
The other garage not in the greatest spot after Watkins Glen is Hendrick Motorsports. They struggled all weekend and had all of their cars finish somewhere in the 20s. That was definitely not the expected result from a team that typically has cars dominating in some capacity on every type of track.
Will they be able to make a respectable comeback this weekend at Dover? You’ll have to wait and see. Stay tuned as these guys battle it out on the Monster Mile for the victory this Sunday.
