Bank of America ROVAL 400 Picks & Race Preview
Race Details
Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023
Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course
Time: 2 pm ET
Channel: NBC
Last Weekend Recap
Not going to lie. The results of Talladega are a strong indicator of why I loathe superspeedway racing in the playoffs. There are some finishes that make sense and many that we wouldn’t see on a “normal” Sunday…
I’m not saying there shouldn’t be representation from a superspeedway, but I will say that putting one plus a road course back to back to close out a round is pretty unrepresentative of many driver’s capabilities. Much of superspeedway racing is, in fact, luck…
And then you have NASCAR, taking away true second place and disqualifying Kevin Harvick in his LAST START at the track due to some dumb window mounts…
The finish was crazy enough, with Blaney beating out Harvick by only 0.012 seconds. But NASCAR just had to do something that is going to benefit another playoff driver in the grand scheme of things…
With the round of 12 closing out this weekend, there are four drivers about to be eliminated once again. Keselowski is 2 points above the cutoff line.
What to Expect This Weekend
Hopefully, the ROVAL will treat him better than Talladega. This is definitely an interesting race to watch, as most road courses are…
They are a battle of endurance and, oftentimes, patience. Drivers must make sure they take care of their equipment while also navigating the intricacies of this 3.669 asphalt road course, complete with 17 turns…
It’s one of the biggest road courses the drivers have to navigate, with some turns requiring drivers to nearly stop before entering. With any road course, track position is critical…
It is very challenging to pass cars, and only a few chances throughout the entire 17 turns where that is even possible…
What makes it even more challenging are the lap cars that will inevitably challenge the leaders. The thing about road courses this late in the season is that lap cars are still trying to gain everything they can…
Tires will be a storyline as these guys chew them up throughout the race and battle the cars around them, lap cars or not.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking winners at road courses, we have a little bit more of a predictability pattern to follow…
The carnage at these tracks tends to be less than the superspeedways, and there does seem to be an element of skill that some drivers simply master when an oval isn’t involved…
Ironically, a lot of those drivers also tend to excel on superspeedways…
Nonetheless, There have been four total winners here since the inception of this race into the playoffs. Ryan Blaney won it first in 2018, with Chase Elliott taking the following two years…
So far in 2023, Tyler Reddick took the win at COTA back in March. Martin Truex Jr. took the win at Sonoma this year, with non-NASCAR driver Shane van Gisbergen winning at the inaugural street race in Chicago…
Most recently, William Byron won at Watkins Glen in August…
While Byron has yet to win at the ROVAL, his odds aren’t against him…
He finished 16th last year with not a great setup. Prior to that, he had an 11th place and two 6th place finishes…
His first start in 2018 there left him with a 34th-place run due to an accident…
The thing about Byron is that he is on fire this year. Quietly. But he is still on fire. As the winningest driver this season, Byron is going to look to capitalize on the ROVAL for his 6th win…
He doesn’t need much help moving into the next round, but another victory never hurt anyone. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race with odds by Bovada:
- Winner: William Byron +700
- Mid-Range Pick: AJ Allmendinger +900
- Dark Horse: Alex Bowman +3000
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Points Standings
Let’s take a look at your current points as we head into the closing race of the Round of 12:
- William Byron
- Ryan Blaney
- Denny Hamlin
- Christopher Bell
- Chris Buescher
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Kyle Larson
- Brad Keselowski
- Tyler Reddick
- Bubba Wallace
- Ross Chastain
- Kyle Busch
Unfortunately, Busch is all but out of contention without a win. I imagine he’s going to be pretty aggressive on Sunday, which could cause problems for other drivers along the way…
Chastain, Wallace, and Reddick are also on the bubble, but Reddick has the best opportunity, in my opinion. He’s also another guy to watch…
He’s 2 points below the cutoff, but he’s also very good at this track and a premier road course driver…
Wallace, well, he needs some luck on his side, and a road course may just give it to him. The top 8 in the points are typically pretty strong on these tracks, although I do hesitate with Keselowski…
He’s the one driver that may falter. We’ll have to wait and see how it all plays out…
Who will take the biggest risk? Who is going to be eliminated at the end of the day? Stay tuned for an action-packed race at the Charlotte ROVAL this weekend!