Shriners Children’s 500 Betting Preview | Value Picks & Analysis

by | Last updated Mar 7, 2024 | nascar

Race: Shriners Children’s 500 Preview #1

Date: Sunday March 10, 2024

Track: Phoenix Raceway

Time: 3:30pm ET

Channel: FOX

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Kyle Larson showed us he’s here for it in 2024. Not only did he take the win but he took all of the stages at Las Vegas! There was no gambling for him. The defending winner left absolutely nothing on the table, even when William Byron made a gutsy move and made gains to pickup up multiple spots. It was absolutely nothing to Larson. He never panicked and never lost sight of the checkered flag. Larson did exactly what he came to do and celebrated with his son and daughter in victory lane when it was all said and done. That was really awesome to see. I’m so glad NASCAR hasn’t taken that piece away from us. It was so humbling seeing Larson load his kids in the car and just celebrate in the moment with them and watch him be a dad.

I’m sure Tyler Reddick wanted to do just the same with his young son, Beau, but he came up short by half a second. It was a good showing for 23XI Racing seeing as his counterpart in Bubba Wallace struggled and ended the day with a dismal 35th place finish. Reddick was noticeably disappointed. Honestly, after a 30th place at Atlanta and a 29th at Daytona, Reddick should be jumping for joy. He’s got a lot of runway in front of him for the season. I believe we’ll see a win out of this team this year.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Will it be at Phoenix? That’s where these drivers and teams are headed this weekend. Phoenix is a great race. It’s a great racetrack. It’s not a typical intermediate. It’s a big short track. It’s a 1 mile asphalt dogleg oval with anywhere from 8 to 11 degrees of progressive banking throughout this track. Perhaps its most notorious characteristic are its blue walls. It’s just a cool place. It’s on the bucket list for me to visit for sure. I’ve been to a lot of tracks but this is one I haven’t been able to cross off the list yet. Much like Vegas, tires are going to play a huge role in the outcome of this race. I’m not totally sure what was happening at Vegas, but it sure was a wild ride for some of these guys. I’m fairly certain that tires took the place of the wrecks that we saw at Atlanta for most of the field! Ha! It was a good race. We saw a lot of three wide racing but the tire issues were plentiful. With the flatter surfaces of Phoenix, the drivers are going to have to be even more cautious as they push up towards the wall because the wear on the outside of those tires is going to fall off even quicker.

Odds and Value Picks?

Who is going to control that best? Maybe the driver that can get closest to the wall without hitting it is going to have the best shot! Well, who might that be you ask? Fancy that, but last week’s winner sure does have a knack for this place too. Kyle Larson has one of the best average finishes since 2021 amongst all active drivers and also has a win. He also has 3 top 5 finishes in 6 starts. That’s not a bad record. Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, and Martin Truex Jr. also all have wins since 2021. So to give you an idea, that’s 6 different drivers with wins in 6 different races. Will 2024 give us a repeat winner? Let’s take a look at our potential winners as we head into this weekend’s festivities at Phoenix with odds provided by Bovada:

  • Winner: Ryan Blaney
  • Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher
  • Dark Horse: Josh Berry

So Josh Berry is still very much a dark horse. But hey, this weekend, we have a little more going for us. Even though he’s only had one run here, it was a top 10 run. I think the kid has a lot to give. A top 10 finish at Phoenix is no easy feat. This is a track that takes skill. You don’t luck your way into a good finish, he’s got a good shot at another solid points weekend. Chris Buescher has some work to do at Phoenix but he’s coming into his own as a driver and 2023 was just a phenomenal year for him. He’s building on that in 2024. Look for this weekend to be a time for him to continue that journey of growth. Ryan Blaney, well, he currently holds the best average finish of active drivers at this track. He’s been running solid in all races so far and been a contender each weekend. He’s on the cusp of a win and with top 5 finishes in his last 6 starts at this track, y’all can do that math on that one. Blaney is due for a win. This guy is gold. He’s got the skill and he’s already proven this year that he’s coming in championship form. Look for him to be at the front of the pack this Sunday. Let’s see where he’s currently sitting in the points.

  1. Kyle Larson
  2. Ryan Blaney
  3. Martin Truex Jr.
  4. William Byron
  5. Ross Chastain
  6. Kyle Busch
  7. Chase Elliott
  8. Daniel Suarez
  9. Ty Gibbs
  10. Denny Hamlin
  11. Austin Cindric
  12. Tyler Reddick
  13. Alex Bowman
  14. Bubba Wallace
  15. Erik Jones
  16. John H. Nemechek

Wallace was the biggest loser of the week, dropping a whopping 10 positions after his 35th place finish at Vegas. It’s not to say he can’t make up some significant ground. We’re early in the season, but he definitely can’t afford to keep that pattern up. John H. Nemechek also had a rough weekend, but honestly, I don’t see him making up much ground as the weeks tick on. We’ll continue to see some significant movement in the next few weeks as we normalize the points, especially after Phoenix. This weekend is always a pretty exciting one. Stay tuned for a great Sunday afternoon of racing as these drivers and teams battle the blue walls of Phoenix Raceway! 

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