Ms. V breaks down the Würth 400 with NASCAR picks, predictions, and value angles for Sunday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway.
Race: Würth 400 Presented by LIQUI MOLY
Date: Sunday May 3rd, 2026
Track: Texas Motor Speedway
Time: 3:30pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
And just like that, Carson Hocevar gets his first ever NASCAR Cup Series win and celebrates in true Hocevar fashion, driving around the speedway sitting on the edge of his window. What a way to celebrate! We were all waiting with bated breath for NASCAR to fine or reprimand Hocevar and the team in some capacity, but instead, NASCAR chose to celebrate with Hocevar and bring back a little bit of old school feel to the series. It was very much appreciated from a fan perspective to see the driver celebrating without fear of punishment, and it was so great as a fan to watch that moment for the 23-year old’s first win. What a win it was!
Hocevar took the win over second place Chris Buescher by a 0.114 second margin after leading a total of 19 of the last 37 laps. In true Talladega fashion, the end of the race was pure chaos. There were a total of three late race restarts leaving everyone on the edge of their seats. Lap 115 is where it really fell apart for literally everyone. Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain made contact, resulting in a chain reaction that took out 26 cars from contention. In true Wallace fashion, accountability was not on his radar. He chalked it up to his car not being able to take a charge that hard and somehow just blowing off the fact that he took out 2 dozen other drivers in the process. We all know things happen at Talladega, but come on, Bubba. Own it a little bit! When all was said and done, it gave some other guys who haven’t had the best season an opportunity to throw some points on the board. Alex Bowman came home third followed by Chase Elliott and Zane Smith to round out the top five spots. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Noah Gragson, and Kyle Busch were your top ten finishers.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
That was the first top 10 finish for Busch this season, so he will need to make sure to carry that confidence and momentum into Texas on Sunday. This track is an intermediate track, but it still carries a lot of speed. That is fitting as these teams are coming off the fastest track on the circuit. Texas is a 1.5-mile asphalt over with 20 degrees of banking through turns 1 and 2, 24 degrees through 3 and 4, and 5 degrees on the stretches. While the banking isn’t nearly as wild as Talladega’s, it still is plenty enough to give these guys a lot of momentum out of the turns to carry a lot of speed. Tires will be important but so is track position. Clean air will be everything here. Qualifying matters. Pit strategy matters.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to our potential winners, Kyle Busch does stand out. He’s a guy with 4 career wins here, so there’s hope. He can hold on to that. However, and that’s a big however, there are several other guys that are on the radar and need to be considered as the front runners. Denny Hamlin has 3 career wins at Texas. Joey Logano has a couple along with guys like Reddick, Byron, Elliott, Larson, and Wallace all having a win of their own. That’s quite a few drivers that we need to keep on the radar. Let’s look at the breakdown and chances for these guys heading into this weekend’s race with odds provided by Bovada:
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+500)
As mentioned, Hamlin is one of the most winningest active drivers on this track. He’s hungry this year and really needing the stage points, laps led points, and win points to work his way to a possible championship. With 330 laps led here, he’s got something under his belt. His last 2 races weren’t the greatest, but he had engine trouble in last year’s race. The last three races brought him 2 top 5s and 3 top 10s, so he definitely knows how to get around the track. He’s tracking as the favorite right now along with Tyler Reddick. I have a feeling that Hamlin is going to perform well this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Kyle Busch (+8000)
Busch has the most wins out of active drivers, but his recent runs haven’t resulted in much. This team needs an injection of confidence and a strong car this weekend. Busch’s last top 10 came in 2024, so he needs to usher in that mojo. Over his career, he’s led 1,069 laps resulting in 14 top 5 finishes. It’s absolutely plausible that Busch can overcome and see victory lane again. Texas might be the place that he does it.
Dark Horse: Erik Jones (+15000)
Those odds are wild. Sure. But considering that he’s had 4 top 5s and 8 top 10s in just 14 career starts, well, this is obviously one of his better tracks. Jones is 3rd on the all-time best average finish list, and he’s also led 116 laps here over the years. Will Jones come out victorious? Let’s see how well he plays at Texas this weekend.
All three of these guys definitely need the points lift. The front runners are running away from the rest of the field, clearly showing their dominance. Reddick alone is 110 points above second place Hamlin. Here we are talking about Hamlin needing points in 2nd place! Let’s see how the rest of the field is coming together after the race that was Talladega on Sunday:
- Tyler Reddick
- Denny Hamlin
- Ryan Blaney
- Chase Elliott
- Ty Gibbs
- Kyle Larson
- Chris Buescher
- Carson Hocevar
- Christopher Bell
- Brad Keselowski
- William Byron
- Bubba Wallace
- Ryan Preece
- Daniel Suarez
- Joey Logano
- Austin Cindric
Buescher and Hocevar were the clear winners on the weekend, both jumping 4 positions in the standings. Byron and Wallace earned 4 spots in the other direction after the crash on lap 115. Cindric finds himself back in the top 16, with Chase Brisoce falling out of contention. Talladega is a place that really throws a wrench in the points, but the drivers and teams will have an opportunity to make up some ground this weekend at Texas. Stay tuned to see how the tables turn as these guys battle it out in the Texas heat!
