Wurth 400 Race Betting Analysis & Free Picks

by | Last updated Apr 26, 2023 | nascar

Ty Gibbs NASCAR Driver

Race: Wurth 400
Date: Sunday, April 30, 2023
Track: Dover Motor Speedway
Time: 2 pm ET
Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Kyle Busch took his Las Vegas spirit with him to Talladega and stayed “all in” in the closing laps of the Geico 500. He gambled by not pitting and getting fuel there at the end, and it paid off in a big way when he managed to grab the checkered flag after leading only three laps the entire race. Truth be told, Busch isn’t known for being the best super speedway racer, but he was definitely in the right place at the right time and used strategy to his advantage. That’s half of what super speedway racing is, to begin with, anyway. In fact, this is only the second race that Busch has won at Talladega. It’s taken 15 years to get back to victory lane here. Even Busch realized sometimes it pays to be lucky. He was all smiles in victory lane and didn’t even do a burnout because he didn’t think he had enough fuel after the double overtime. For Busch, it’s a refreshing win after last year’s struggles. This marks his second win of the season with RCR. That’s definitely something to smile about.

You know who wasn’t smiling after the race? Bubba Wallace. He admittedly ran really well for the majority of the race, having a top 5 finish in stage two. Unfortunately, his attempts at blocking everyone in the closing laps ended disastrously when Ryan Blaney made contact after Wallace attempted to block and threw both of them for a spin. Wallace ended up crossing the finish line in a very disappointing 28th position. Looking back, while we expect drivers to block on these tracks, it’s still a very fine line between blocking and being too aggressive. For Wallace, he learned the hard way. It’s nearly impossible to block every single driver on every single line, but he was giving it his all. Joey Logano is one of the best when it comes to that style of driving. Wallace will have to take some notes and try again at Daytona. For Blaney, the results weren’t as tumultuous, with him still being able to pull out a runner-up finish, but he really could’ve won that race and broken a long winless streak. It just wasn’t meant to be, I suppose. Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, and Brad Keselowski rounded out the top five. They were followed by Erik Jones, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez, and Todd Gilliland. For Briscoe, it was a tough race after the surgery on his broken finger, but this dude has some gumption. He’s pulled off some really great finishes with that broken finger in the last few weeks, not missing a beat! For many of the drivers, this race was characterized by pit road issues. Tyler Reddick, for example, locked it up heading into pit road.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

These teams will have to figure out the pit road woes as they head into this weekend’s race. They won’t have to worry too much about coming into pit road entirely too fast at Dover, but there definitely has its own set of challenges. Dover Motor Speedway, or the Monster Mile as it is affectionately known, is a 1-mile asphalt oval with 24 degrees of banking in the turns and 9 degrees of banking on the straights. This track is hard on tires. That’s a battle that will be hard fought with the tire issues that are still being worked through with this particular car. The track tends to eat the tires away and causes a lot of uneven wear. The right sides like to give out here, so we’ll have to see the strategy these teams employ to protect their tires throughout the race. Track position is also key. This mile-long track is short enough to still see some close racing, but it’s long enough that the leader can often pull ahead of the pack.

Odds and Value Picks

Much like Talladega, Dover has a long history with NASCAR. It’s been around since the 60s, and many of the veteran drivers have quite a heart for this place. Dover is a track that will chew a driver up and spit him out if he’s not careful. There are a few younger drivers that have success here. Chase Elliott is one of them. In fact, he’s the youngest winner at just 22 years old. Last week’s winner, Kyle Busch, also has wins here. He won back in 2008 and 2010. I guess his win last weekend goes to show that it doesn’t matter how long it’s been between the wins. It’s still possible. He’s a very real option for winning this weekend too. Other guys to keep your eyes on include Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. Truex actually has the best average finish out of all active drivers here at this track, and his last win came in 2019. When it comes to looking at the current odds, many books are putting Larson as the favorite, but I’m not so sure he’s the one to beat. He’s got two wins this year, tying Busch and Byron, but he hasn’t been the most consistent. I do think he’ll be a contender, but he’s going to have to outrun defending race winner Chase Elliott. Although Elliott had a less-than-desirable finish at Talladega, he was simply the product of super speedway racing. He led laps and had a strong car. That’s only going to motivate him to get to the front and stay there at Dover. Let’s take a look at all of your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race with odds provided by Bovada Sportsbook:

  • Fav: Chase Elliott +800
  • Mid-Range Pick: Kevin Harvick +1100
  • Dark Horse: Ty Gibbs +5000

Gibbs has 2 Xfinity starts at Dover. He also has 2 top 5 finishes. If we take a peak at his performance so far this year in the Cup Series, he’s really starting to figure things out. With the exception of Talladega, he’s managed 4 top-10 finishes in his last five starts, including Bristol and Richmond. That should tell us something. Hold on to your hats for this kid. We’re going to need to keep our eyes on this JGR up-and-coming driver. Kevin Harvick is another strong Dover racer. He has a couple of wins here and more top 10 and 5 finishes than I care to count. He hasn’t finished worse than 9th in his last eight starts here. Harvick is looking for a strong 2023 since this is his last season. Dover may be a really great race for him based on his previous performance and how this year is going so far. They will all have to chase down Chase Elliott, though. Ten out of twelve starts have resulted in nothing less than a 12th-place finish for Elliott. He’s done a tremendous job at this track and is looking to get back into victory lane after his hiatus from the track recently. Let’s see how these guys sit in the points after all of the recent events in NASCAR:

  • Kyle Larson
  • Kyle Busch
  • William Byron
  • Christopher Bell
  • Tyler Reddick
  • Joey Logano
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  • Ross Chastain
  • Kevin Harvick
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Alex Bowman
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Chase Briscoe
  • Chris Buescher

Buescher is still there hanging on. With these consistent top-10 finishes, he may be able to swing his way into the playoffs on points. A win wouldn’t hurt, but he’s learning a lot and also a lot about how significant consistency is in this sport. I laugh because I talk about Larson and his inconsistency, but it’s really relative to his level of talent. Here he is leading the points, but Kyle Busch isn’t far behind. Neither is Byron. We’ll have to see what this weekend brings. Although it’s atypical to pick a driver two weeks in a row for two completely different styles of tracks, when we’re talking about Chase Elliott, it’s clear why. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of racing at Dover Motor Speedway!