Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, October 23, 2026
4:00 PM ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
The Bucks are about a 1-point favorite over the Bulls, which makes this a near pick’em, and the total sits at 238. My play is the Bucks moneyline (-110).
Quick heads-up before anything else: this one tips in the afternoon. Milwaukee moved its home opener from the evening to 3 p.m. local time so it wouldn’t collide with the Brewers hosting Game 1 of the World Series that night. So if your schedule still says 8 PM ET, toss it.
A brand-new Bucks team meets its home crowd
For the first time in more than a decade, Milwaukee opens a season without Giannis Antetokounmpo. He and Bobby Portis went to Miami this summer, and the Bucks got back Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis and draft capital. Taylor Jenkins, the former Grizzlies coach, is running the show now.
Herro is a Milwaukee native, so Friday’s introduction should be loud. He scored 24 with 9 assists in Wednesday’s loss at Washington, and Jaquez added an efficient 22. The Bucks led for much of that game before a big Wizards run in the fourth broke it open.
That loss stung, but it wasn’t a collapse. Myles Turner said afterward that the team “took a step in the right direction,” and I agree. Anthony Davis went for 34 and 12. Plenty of teams will lose to that.
Chicago’s opener was a different kind of bad
The Bulls lost 135-92 in Toronto, the worst season-opening loss in franchise history. They turned it over 27 times, and the Raptors scored 35 points off those mistakes. They also went 4-for-36 from three.
New coach Tiago Splitter didn’t hide from it. “Yes, I’m worried,” he said. “We’ve got to get better.” No. 4 pick Caleb Wilson had 16 points but 9 turnovers in his debut, and Josh Giddey looked passive while playing through a sore left wrist.
Chicago’s shooting will bounce back some. Nobody stays at 11% from deep. The turnover problem worries me more because it’s about decision-making, and Wilson and Matas Buzelis are young players still learning where help defenders come from.
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Where the game gets decided
The three-point line. Milwaukee hit 15 threes in D.C. and has real shooters in Herro, AJ Green and Turner. Chicago took threes on more than 44% of its shots last season, but in Toronto only Norman Powell made more than one, and Buddy Hield went 0-for-3.
The glass. This is the Bulls’ best path. Even in a blowout, they grabbed 21 offensive rebounds in Toronto and got to the free-throw line 47 times. Milwaukee’s frontcourt has to box out, and with Nic Claxton out for Chicago, it should be able to.
Ball security. Herro and Jakucionis give the Bucks two ball handlers who can punish a sloppy opponent in transition. If the Bulls give away 20-plus possessions again, this won’t be close.
Injury notes
Chicago’s Nic Claxton (hamstring) is out. Giddey (wrist), Zach Collins (quad) and Tobe Awaka (knee) are probable. Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are questionable with a stomach illness. Milwaukee hasn’t listed anyone.
What could flip this
The market has drifted toward Chicago overnight, so somebody likes a Bulls bounce-back, and I respect that. A team this athletic doesn’t shoot 11% from three twice in a row. Giddey has also owned this matchup, averaging a triple-double over his last four games against Milwaukee. If he looks healthy and the Bulls dominate the offensive glass, they can steal it. One more wrinkle: both teams play again Saturday, so neither should be saving legs.
How I see it playing out
I’ll back the home team in a building that’s going to be juiced for a new era, against an opponent that hasn’t shown it can protect the ball. Bucks 119, Bulls 115.
The Pick: Bucks moneyline (-110)
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