Celtics vs. Blazers Pick, Odds, Analysis 3/17/23

Boston Celtics (48-22 SU, 35-33-2 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (31-38 SU, 34-35-0 ATS)
When: Friday, March 17th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland
TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Bos -4.0/Por +4
Total: 227.5
Money Line: Boston Celtics -171/+140

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee
• Jayson Tatum (Questionable) Hip
• Robert Williams III (Out) Hamstring
• Payton Pritchard (Out) Heel

Trail Blazers

• Damian Lillard (Probable) Calf
• Jerami Grant (Questionable) Quad
• Justise Winslow (Out) Ankle
• Ibou Badji (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Boston is 48-22 overall. When taking to the road, Boston has a mark of 22-13 and a win percentage of 63%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 35-33-2 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs the spread, they are 3-2 in their past 5 games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS.

Most recently, the Celtics took down the Timberwolves by a score of 104-102. Jaylen Brown finished with 35 points, which was the most on the team. Boston did not cover the spread as 4-point favorites.

Heading into the game, Portland is 31-38 overall. When playing at home, Portland has a mark of 17-16 and a win percentage of 52%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 34-35-0 vs the spread. The Trail Blazers need a win in today’s matchup vs Boston to avoid their 5th straight loss.

In their most recent game, Portland was unable to come home with a victory against the Knicks, losing by a score of 123-107. Despite Damian Lillard leading the team with 38 points, the Trail Blazers were unable to overcome their status as 2-point underdogs. The Trail Blazers also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Celtics picked up the 115-93 win over the Trail Blazers. The Celtics’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 9.5 point favorite. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Celtics have averaged 120 points per game compared to 112 for Portland. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Boston. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 232 points per game.

Analysis

For the season, Boston has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.5 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 99.5 possessions per contest. Boston’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 6th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.6%. Defensively, the Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.48 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.86%.

Heading into the game, Jayson Tatum is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 30.1. Currently, Jaylen Brown is 2nd on the team in scoring at 26.8 points per game.

This season, the Trail Blazers’ offense is averaging 114.4 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Portland has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.6 possessions per game. Portland’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 8th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.3%. Defense has been a struggle for Portland, as they are currently allowing 115.11 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.95% of their looks from the outside.

Heading into this matchup, Portland is in jeopardy of not having Jerami Grant in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 20.5 points per game. So far, Damian Lillard leads the team in scoring and is averaging 32.3 points per contest.

More Picks: Memphis at San Antonio betting prediction 3/17/23

Betting Trends

• Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
• Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
• Trail Blazers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Blazers had a great first half against the Knicks earlier this week, but faded badly in the second half. While some might think they’re tanking, it was more of an issue of being the first game back after a long road trip. They simply ran out of gas in the second half. I expect a much more solid effort Friday so I’m laying the +4 with Portland!