Clippers vs. Nuggets Betting Analysis & Pick ATS

by | Jan 5, 2023 | nba

Los Angeles Clippers (21-18 SU, 20-18-1 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (24-13 SU, 18-19-0 ATS)
When: Thursday, January 5th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: TNT

Point Spread: LAC +4.5/ DEN -4.5
Total: 225.0
Money Line: Los Angeles Clippers +156/ -194

Notable Injuries

Clippers

  • Nicolas Batum (Out) Ankle
  • Paul George (Questionable) Hamstring

Nuggets

  • Jeff Green (Out) Hand
  • Peyton Watson (Out) Adductor
  • Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 21-18 overall. When taking to the road, Los Angeles has a mark of 10-10 and a win percentage of 50%. Currently, the team is 6th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 20-18-1 vs. the spread. Los Angeles travels to take on the Nuggets, hoping to avoid their 4th straight loss.

In their most recent game, Los Angeles was unable to come away with a victory against the Heat, losing by a score of 110-100. Despite Paul George leading the team with 25 points, the Clippers were unable to overcome their status as 1-point underdogs. The Clippers also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Denver is 24-13 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 14-3 and a win percentage of 82%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 18-19-0 vs. the spread. In Denver’s last five games, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 4-1 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 7-3 and 6-4 ATS.

In their last game, Denver was defeated by Timberwolves with a score of 124-111. Despite Nikola Jokic scoring 24 points, the team was unable to come out on top. Going into the game, the Nuggets were 4-point favorites.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up the 114-104 win over the Clippers. The Nuggets’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 4.0 point favorite. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. In terms of betting vs. the spread, the Clippers have gone 3-2, but the Nuggets actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Denver has averaged 111 points per contest while allowing 106. In these contests, they averaged a combined 217 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

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Analysis

This season, Los Angeles is averaging just 109.5 points per game, which places them 28th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA, at just 98.0 possessions per game. Los Angeles’ offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 6th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.6%. Defensively, the Clippers have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 108.39 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.31%.

Heading into the game, Paul George is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 24.4. Currently, Marcus Morris Sr. is 2nd on the team in scoring at 13.4 points per game.

For the season, Denver has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 116.4 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 98.6 possessions per contest. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 1st in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.8%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.0 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets allow an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Nikola Jokic is the top scorer for Denver, averaging 25.6 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 61.5%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Aaron Gordon, averaging 17.1 points per game.

Betting Trends

  • The Clippers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • The Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
  • The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Clips have looked REALLY good lately, and Denver doesn’t blow teams out. I’m betting the Clippers +4.5. Get it early because I think this line could move prior to tip-off.