Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Spread Pick | March 31

by | Last updated Mar 31, 2024 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (44-29 SU, 42-31 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (38-35 SU, 42-30 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 31st, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Toyota Center, TX, Houston

TV: Spac

Point Spread: Dal -2/Hou +2

Total: 230

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -128/+106

Notable Injuries


  • Luka Doncic (Questionable) Knee
  • Josh Green (Out) Ankle


  • Steven Adams (Out) Knee
  • Alperen Sengün (Out) Ankle
  • Tari Eason (Out) Leg
  • Cam Whitmore (Probable) Knee

The Dallas Mavericks (-128) are on a six game winning streak and are favored by 2 points against the Houston Rockets (+106). The over/under line for this Western Southwest division matchup is set at 230 and tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 ET at the Toyota Center.

This game will be shown on Spac and the Rockets (38-35) are currently 11th in the Western Conference, while the Mavs (44-29) are 6th.

Recent Form

Dallas has won six straight games and is currently 44-29 on the season, which is good for 2nd place in the Southwest Division and 6th in the Western Conference. On the road, the Mavericks are 22-14 compared to 22-15 at home.

The Mavericks have an ATS record of 42-31 for the season and have covered the spread in four straight games. As the favorite, they are 28-16 ATS and have been the favorite in 33 of their 55 games.

This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 34-39, and the under has hit in six straight games. On average, their games have finished with 235 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 230.

In their last game, the Mavericks defeated the Kings by a score of 107-103. The O/U line for that game was 232.5 points, and Dallas covered the spread as 1-point favorites.

The Rockets have won 11 straight games and are currently 38-35 on the season. In the Western Conference, they are 11th and are 3rd in the Southwest Division.

At home, the Rockets are 26-11 straight up and 27-10 against the spread. On average, they have outscored their opponents by 7.1 points per game at home.

As the underdog, the Rockets have a record of 15-30 and have covered the spread in six straight games. Today, they are getting 2 points against the Mavericks.

In their last game, the Rockets beat the Jazz by a score of 101-100. The O/U line for that game was 230.5, and Houston was favored by 8.5 points.

This season, Rockets games have averaged a combined 226.6 points per game, and their O/U record for the season is 34-39.

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The Historicals

Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Mavericks and Rockets have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 1 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Houston. Over the course of these games, they averaged 225 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.


Heading into this game, the Mavericks are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the league. They are 3rd in the NBA in three-pointers made per game at 14.6, and they are 2nd in three-point attempts at 39.3 per game. However, their three-point shooting percentage of 37% is just 12th in the league.

Overall, the Mavericks are 6th in the NBA in scoring at 118.6 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 117.9 points per game compared to 119.3 points per game at home.

When it comes to field goal percentage, the Mavericks are 11th in the NBA at 48%. In terms of pace, they are 12th in the league at 99.5 possessions per game.

At this time, the Mavericks’ defense is positioned 20th in the NBA, permitting 116.4 points per game. The Dallas defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.7% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 47.9% of their field goal attempts vs. Dallas.

At home, the Rockets are scoring 116.7 points per game, which is 13th in the NBA. Overall, they are 15th in scoring at 114.3 points per game. In terms of pace, Houston is 13th in the league with 99.3 possessions per game.

So far this season, the Rockets have made an average of 12.5 three-pointers per game, which is 16th in the NBA. However, they are just 23rd in three-point shooting percentage at 35%. In terms of free throws, Houston is 6th in attempts and 9th in makes.

Overall, the Rockets have made 46% of their field goals this season, which is 26th in the league. In terms of two-point shooting, Houston is 24th in percentage at 52%. When it comes to assists, the Rockets are 25th in the NBA.

At present, the Rockets’ defense is ranked 10th, allowing 112.4 points per game. The Rockets defense is coming off a game in which they held the Jazz offense to just 38.5% shooting. Overall, they gave up 100 points to Utah.

Betting Trends

  • In their last five road games, Dallas has averaged 117 points per game while allowing 107 . The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 4-1 vs. the spread.
  • The Rockets are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 3-0 straight-up.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Rockets have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 5-0 in these scenarios.
  • In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Joe”s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Rockets are the hottest team in basketball and have put themselves in the mix for play in the tournament. However, with the Warriors on a three-game win streak of their own, the Rockets must continue their incredible run to make sure they stay in the mix down the stretch. Heading into the game, they are 2-point underdogs, and I like them to pick up the win at home. I’m taking Houston on the moneyline at +106..