Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics Predictions 2/11/22

by | Feb 11, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (30-24 SU, 24-30-0 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (31-25 SU, 27-27-2 ATS)

When: Friday February 11 2022, 07:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

TV: ALT

Point Spread: DEN +4.5/BOS -4.5(Opened at BOS -4 at BetOnline - Check out their FAT list of Super Bowl props!)

Total: 217.5 (Opened at 217.5)

Money Line: Denver 175/Boston -210

Power Rating: BOS -5.5

Probable Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets PG Austin Rivers P, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart, SG Marcus Smart, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams

Key Injuries

Nuggets

Vlatko Cancar: foot (OUT) Jamal Murray: knee (OUT) Michael Porter Jr.: back (OUT) Austin Rivers: hip flexor (QUESTIONABLE)

Celtics
Bol Bol: foot (OUT) Daniel Theis: personal (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 30-24, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 15-14. Over the Nugget’s last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Denver, is averaging 116.0 points per game, 6.0 points more than their season average of 109.7. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who collectively give up 109.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Nugget’s recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 114.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 107.6. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, Denver took down the New York by a score of 132-115.

The Boston Celtics get set to hose the Nuggets with an overall record of 31-25, placing them 7th in the Eastern Conference. Throughout the season, they have played well at home, putting together a record of 18-10. Over the Celtics’ last 10 games, they have gone 8-2. This mark includes a 6 game winning streak. During this stretch of games, they have racked up 3 wins of over 30 points. Most recently, they took down the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 126-91.

An Eye On Pace

In terms of pace, both the Nuggets and Celtics are in the middle of the pack. So far, the Nuggets are 21st in field goal attempts per game, while Boston’s 87.6 shots per contest place them 14th. Throughout the season, both units have done a good job getting to the free-throw line. In addition, they are both above the league average in three-point shots attempts.

Key Matchups

A key reason for Boston’s recent success is their strong defensive play. On the season, they have given up the second-fewest paint points in the NBA. This emphasis on interior defense will be important against a Nuggets team led by Nikola Jokic, who are ranked 12th in points in the paint per game. Not only have the Celtics played good defense inside, but they are giving up just 103.8 points per contest. With Denver coming to town knocking down 47% of their shots (3rd), look for this to be a tight game.

The Historicals

Tonight’s matchup between Denver and Boston will be their first meeting of the season. Last year, the two team’s met up for two games, with Boston picking up both wins.

How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs Celtics

95% are betting the Celtics against the spread.

54% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 217.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into the game, the Boston Celtics are 4.5 point favorites at home. Even though the Celtics are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, I see Denver covering this spread. Led by Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the NBA. In an effort to slow down the big man, I see Boston packing the paint. However, this should open things up for Denver’s outside shooters. I am taking the Nuggets at +4.5

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite prop bet of the night is to take Nikola Jokic to go over his prop of 9.5 assists. Look for Boston to key in on Jokic. However, the big man is the league’s best distributors at his position. Look for his teammates to benefit from getting a lot of open looks. Bet your Nuggets/Celtics pick and your Super Bowl LVI picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!