Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors Predictions

by | Apr 14, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (48-34 SU, 37-45-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (53-29 SU, 41-37-4 ATS)

When: Saturday April 16 2022, 08:30 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

TV: ABC

Point Spread: DEN +5/GSW -5 (Opened GSW -4.5 at BetOnline - Fastest BTC payouts on the web!)

Total: 224 (Opened at 224.5)

Money Line: Denver 166/Golden State -201

Power Rating: GSW -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Golden State PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Danny Green, C Kevon Looney

Denver PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Jeff Green, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets
Facundo Campazzo: Suspension (OUT)
Monte Morris: Elbow (QUESTIONABLE)
Aaron Gordon: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
Will Barton: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)
Michael Porter Jr.: Back (OUT)
Jamal Murray: Knee (OUT)

Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry: Foot (QUESTIONABLE)
Otto Porter Jr.: Foot (QUESTIONABLE)
Andre Iguodala: Hip (QUESTIONABLE)
Andrew Wiggins: Back (QUESTIONABLE)
James Wiseman: Knee (OUT)

The Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets in a Western-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:30 PM ET at the Chase Center.

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 48-34, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 25-16. Over the Nuggets’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Denver is averaging 124.0 points per game, 11.0 points more than their season average of 112.7. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 113.0 points per contest. A key reason for Denver’s recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 125.0 points over their previous five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 110.4. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, the team fell to the LA Lakers by a score of 146-141.

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 3rd in the Western Conference. So far, Golden State is above .500 at home, holding a record of 31-10. The Warriors have played well over their last five games, picking up 5 wins. During this stretch, Golden State is averaging 115.0 points per game, 4.0 points more than their season average of 111.0. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 112.0 points per contest. The Warriors come into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 102.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 105.5. In the Golden State Warriors’ most recent game, Golden State took down New Orleans by a score of 128-107.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Denver travels to take on the Golden State Warriors, the Nuggets’ leading scorer is Nikola Jokic. Through 75 games, Jokic is averaging 27 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 41.0% of his games. So far, the Warriors are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.0% of their games, placing them 14th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Stephen Curry leads the Warriors in scoring, averaging 25 points across his 64 games. Throughout the season, Curry has outscored his season average in 45.0% of his outings. Given that Denver’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Stephen Curry should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Nuggets have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.43% of their games, giving them a rank of 20th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Nuggets come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 111.3 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Denver is winning at a rate of 63%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 9.0 points. On the other side, the Warriors hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 40 games as the better defensive team, picking up 31 wins (78%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors have met up for 4 games. In their last meeting, Golden State picked up a 113-102 win.

How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs Warriors

67% are betting the Warriors against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 224.5

More Picks: Get Joe’s Betting Opinion on the Minnesota at Memphis Playoff Game >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
  • Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into this first-round matchup between Golen State and Denver, it will be important to keep an eye on the injury report, as Stephen Curry is listed as questionable with his foot injury. Even with Curry’s status in question, the Warriors enter as the 5 point home favorites. The biggest matchup to watch is if Golden State’s defense can hold up against one of the most efficient offensive units in the NBA. On the season, the Nuggets have the second-best effective field goal percentage, despite hitting just 35% of their threes (16th). Much of this has to do with their ability to work inside, ranking 6th in paint points per game. In what should be a back and forth series, look for the Nuggets to cover the spread as 5 point road underdogs. Bet your NBA playoffs predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $500 on your first deposit at Betnow Sportsbook!