Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Pick ATS

by | Last updated Mar 19, 2024 | nba

Denver Nuggets (47-21 SU, 31-35 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (47-21 SU, 34-33 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 19th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis


Point Spread: Den -7/Min +7

Total: 212.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -289/+232

Notable Injuries


  • Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
  • Zeke Nnaji (Questionable) Back


  • Rudy Gobert (Questionable) Rib
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (Out) Knee
  • Naz Reid (Questionable) Head
  • Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

At 9:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Denver Nuggets in a Western Northwest division matchup. The Timberwolves are currently on a 3-game win streak and have a record of 47-21, which is good for 2nd in the Western Conference. On the other side, the Nuggets are 3rd in the West with a record of 47-21 as well.

Denver is favored by 7 points in this one and is listed at -289 on the moneyline. The over/under line for the game is 212.5. You can catch the game on NBA TV.

Recent Form

Today, the Nuggets are favored by 7 points on the spread. This season, Denver has been favored in 58 of their 68 games and has a record of 43-15 as the favorite. As the favorite, they have gone 26-30 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +5.9 points per game.

In their last game, the Nuggets were favored by 1.5 points but lost to the Mavericks by a score of 107-105. The O/U line for that game was 231.5, and the teams combined to score 212 points.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 25-41-2, and the under has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 224.9 points, and today’s line is set at 212.5.

In the Western Conference standings, the Nuggets are currently in 3rd place with a record of 47-21. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 26-15 compared to 21-6 against the East.

For the season, Denver is 31-35 against the spread and 15-19 ATS on the road. At home, they are 16-16 ATS, while going 26-30 ATS as the favorite. As the favorite, they have a scoring margin of +5.9 PPG and are 43-15 straight-up.

In their last three games, the Timberwolves have covered the spread and are 34-33 ATS for the season. At home, they are 14-17 ATS and have failed to cover in their last five games at home.

Minnesota’s ATS record as the underdog is 9-6 this season, and they have been the underdog in 15 of their 68 games. Today, they are 7-point underdogs and have an ATS record of 8-7 as the underdog.

For the season, the Timberwolves have an O/U record of 34-34, and their last two games have gone under the betting line. On average, their games have finished with 219.9 points, compared to today’s line of 212.5.

Minnesota’s last game was a 114-104 win over the Jazz, and they covered the spread as 4.5-point favorites. In the Western Conference standings, the Timberwolves are in 2nd place with a record of 47-21.

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The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Timberwolves hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 1 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 221 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.


When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are 15th in the league at 114.7 points per game. However, when they are on the road, they are averaging 110.7 points per game.

Denver is one of the most efficient teams in the league when it comes to two-point shooting. They are 2nd in the NBA in two-pointers made per game and 9th in two-point shooting percentage at 56%. Overall, they are 4th in field goal percentage.

Despite being 3rd in the NBA in assists, the Nuggets are only 28th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game. In terms of three-point shooting, Denver is 12th in three-point percentage but just 28th in three-point attempts.

This season, the Nuggets’ defense is the 7th ranked defense in the NBA at 7th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 70.6% of their games. Opponents are hitting 52.5% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 35.7% of their three-point attempts.

Minnesota is currently averaging 113.3 points per game, which is 19th in the NBA. At home, they are scoring 111.7 points per game.

So far this season, the Timberwolves have outscored the NBA scoring average in 45.6% of their games. In terms of pace, Minnesota is 23rd in the league at 97.2 possessions per game.

When it comes to field goal percentage, the Timberwolves are 10th in the NBA at 48%. They are also 8th in true shooting percentage.

At this time, the Timberwolves’ defense is positioned 1st in the NBA, permitting 106.6 points per game. Opponents are hitting 50.6% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 35.2% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

  • Across their last five road contests, Denver has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 113 points per game.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 112 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have a strong straight-up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
  • As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

There’s a lot working against the Wolves tonight, as not only are they banged up, but they are playing on back-to-back nights. This is a big game in the Western Conference, as the two teams are tied for the 2nd seed and are just a half-game behind the Thunder. Look for the Nuggets to bounce back from their loss to Dallas and beat a short handed Timberwolves unit. I like Denver at -7.