Denver Nuggets vs. New York Knicks Point Spread Pick

Denver Nuggets (47-23 SU, 37-32-1 ATS) vs. New York Knicks (41-30 SU, 40-30-1 ATS)
When: Saturday, March 18th, 1:00 PM (ET)
Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York
TV: MSG

Point Spread: Den -2/NY +2
Total: 229.5
Money Line: Denver Nuggets -130/+107

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Zeke Nnaji (Questionable) Shoulder
• Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Knicks

• Jalen Brunson (Questionable) Foot

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Denver is 47-23 overall. When taking to the road, Denver has a mark of 17-17 and a win percentage of 50%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 37-32-1 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs the spread, they are 1-4 in their past 5 games and 1-4 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS.

In their previous game, the Denver team emerged victorious against the Pistons, winning by a margin of 15 points as predicted. Nikola Jokic shone for the Nuggets, scoring 30 points on a shooting percentage of 77.8%. The Nuggets not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

Heading into the game, New York is 41-30 overall. When playing at home, New York has a mark of 19-16 and a win percentage of 54%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 40-30-1 vs the spread. New York will look to stay hot in today’s game vs Denver as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

The Knicks came away with a win in their last matchup against the Trail Blazers, achieving a 123-107 victory as 2-point favorites. Immanuel Quickley led the Knicks with an impressive performance, scoring 26 points on a shooting percentage of 57.1%. In addition to the win, the Knicks also covered the spread.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Knicks picked up the win 106-103 win over the Nuggets. Heading into the game, New York was the 2.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. The Nuggets have had the better record vs. the spread over the last 5 games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 14 points per game. A combined average of 216 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

For the season, Denver has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 116.9 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 98.2 possessions per contest. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.7%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Nikola Jokic is the top scorer for the Nuggets, with an average of 24.8 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 63.3%. Jamal Murray is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 19.9 points per game.

This season, the Knicks’ offense is averaging 115.1 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA. In terms of pace, New York has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.5 possessions per game. The Knicks have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 22nd in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 35.5 attempts per game. Defensively, the Knicks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 106.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.2%.

Heading into this matchup, New York is in jeopardy of not having Jalen Brunson in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 23.8 points per game. So far, Julius Randle leads the team in scoring and is averaging 25.2 points per contest.

More Picks: Boston at Utah analysis and recommended bet for 3/18/23

Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
• The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Knicks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Knicks are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Nuggets have dropped four out of their last five games and the Knicks are playing pretty good ball, despite their recent record not showing that. I’m taking the points with the Knicks as home underdogs