Game 3 Betting Picks: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Preview

Milwaukee Bucks (49-33 SU, 36-48 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 45-37 ATS)

When: Friday, April 26th, 5:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mil +5.5/Ind -5.5

Total: 221.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +193/-238

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Doubtful) Calf
• Khris Middleton (Questionable) Ankle
• Chris Livingston (Doubtful) Illness

Pacers

• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

Tip-off for game three of this Eastern Conference first-round series between the Pacers and Bucks is set for 5:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The series is currently tied at one game apiece, and Indiana is favored by 5.5 points at home. The over/under line is sitting at 221.5 points, and the money line odds are -238 for the Pacers and +193 for the Bucks. ESPN is carrying this game on TV.

Thanks to a 33-25 fourth quarter, the Pacers pulled away late in their most recent game against the Bucks, winning by a score of 125-108. Heading into the game, the Bucks were favored by 1 point, so the Pacers covered the spread. The game also went over the over/under line of 223.5 points, with the teams combining for 233 points.

Indiana’s defense really stepped up in the most recent game, as they held the Bucks to just 44.2% shooting and 13 made threes. On the other side, the Pacers shot 55.6% from the field and made 16 threes. Pascal Siakam had a big game for the Pacers, finishing with 37 points, 6 assists, and 11 rebounds, while Damian Lillard led the Bucks with 34 points.

Recent Form

In their most recent game against the Pacers, the Bucks lost by a score of 125-108. The combined scoring in that game was 233 points.

Milwaukee’s ATS record for the season is 36-48, including going 16-24 ATS on the road. They have failed to cover the spread in their last three road games.

As the underdog, the Bucks have a record of 5-11 straight-up and 7-9 ATS. Today, they are 5.5-point underdogs.

This season, the Bucks have an O/U record of 42-42, and 74 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 221.5. On average, their games have finished with 234.9 points.

Looking at the Eastern Conference standings, the Bucks are currently in 3rd place with a record of 49-33. Within the Central Division, they are in 1st place at 10-7.

In non-conference games, the Bucks have gone 15-15 compared to 34-18 against the East. On the road, their record is 18-22.

Indiana is looking to extend their winning streak at home to six games as they host the Bucks. The Pacers are favored by 5.5 points and have a home ATS record of 22-18 this season.

This year, the Pacers have gone 26-18 as the favorite and have a scoring margin of +6.6 points per game in those games. As the favorite, their ATS record is 21-23.

Indiana’s O/U record for the season is 44-40, and their games have averaged 242.9 points per game. Today’s line of 221.5 is lower than their season average of 240.9.

In their last game against the Bucks, the Pacers won 125-108 as 1-point underdogs. The teams combined for 233 points, surpassing the O/U line of 223.5.

The Pacers finished the regular season with a record of 47-35, which is good for 6th place in the Eastern Conference. Against the East, they went 32-20 and 11-6 in their division.

The Historicals

Through the last 5 matchups between the teams, Indiana has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 points per game separates the teams. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 241 points per game.

Analysis

Milwaukee comes into the game as the NBA’s 4th ranked scoring offense, at 119 points per game. Despite their high scoring average, they have been below the league average in terms of scoring production in 41.5% of their games this season. The Bucks are also one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, averaging 99.9 possessions per contest.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is unlikely to play in this game, leaving the Bucks without their leading scorer at 30.4 points per game. Khris Middleton is questionable with an ankle injury. He averages 15.1 points per game and has hit 38.1% of his threes this season. Over his last four games, Damian Lillard is averaging 28.5 points per game.

On the road this season, the Bucks are allowing 118.0 points per game, which is 22nd in the NBA. Over their last five games, Milwaukee has given up 111.2 points per game (17th).

Overall, opposing teams have scored more than their season average 64.6% of the time vs. the Bucks. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average 48.8% of the time.

Defensively, Milwaukee is 9th in rebounds per game and 2nd in defensive rebounds. They are also 16th in blocked shots and 28th in steals.

Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring team, averaging 123.3 points per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 125.5 points per contest. The Pacers are also one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, averaging 101.2 possessions per game.

Pascal Siakam has been playing well of late, averaging 27.2 points per game in his last five games. This has come while hitting 62.6% of his shots from the field. Myles Turner is averaging 20.6 points per game in his last five games and 2.6 made threes per game. The Celtics will be without Bennedict Mathurin, who is averaging 14.5 points per game.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Pacers have been the best team in the NBA this season. They are allowing opponents to shoot just 36.6% from beyond the arc, which is tops in the league. On the season, they are giving up just 10.8 made threes per game.

Overall, Indiana is 27th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 120.0. However, when playing at home, they have been slightly better, giving up 118.7 points per contest, which is 28th in the league.

Regarding rebounding, the Pacers are near the bottom of the league at 28th. They are also 28th in defensive rebounds per game.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 106 points per game.
• Across the Pacers last five home games, the team averaged 118 points per game while allowing 116. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 2-3 while going 2-3 straight-up.
• The last ten games that Milwaukee was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 5-5 straight up.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Pacers have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Things aren’t trending well for the Bucks in this series, as not only is Giannis unlikely to play in game three, but there is some doubt as to whether Khris Middleton will be able to play. Even if Middleton plays, the Pacers will be able to key in even more on Damian Lillard. Look for the Pacers to go up 2-1, as they not only pick up a win but cover the spread in game three. I like Indiana -5.5.