Golden State Warriors (69-29 SU, 42-55-1 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (76-22 SU, 50-47-1 ATS)
Time: Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 9:00 PM EDT
Where: Toyota Center – Houston, TX
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem
Point Spread: Houston +5.5
Total Line: 209
The Golden State Warriors will face off with the Houston Rockets for Game Seven of the Western Conference Finals. To the winner, goes a trip to the NBA Finals. The loser goes home. For Golden State, a win here would send them to their fourth straight NBA Finals appearance where they will get the opportunity to defend their reign as NBA Champions. The affair will come live from the Toyota Center on Monday, May 28th, 2018 at 9:00 PM ET. The game will be broadcasted for national audiences on TNT.
The Western Conference Finals has been nothing short of a blockbuster as seven games are required to declare a winner. The two best teams in the league have taken each other the distance where one game will determine the ultimate finality. Clutch City will have the privilege of curating hosting duties on their home court where they have been strong all season long. In Game Six, Golden State dominated on their home floor defeating the Rockets 115-86. Previous to this, Houston had won two straight against Golden State by a combined seven points.
There are several betting trends worth looking at in this climactic clash. Most notably, the Rockets have been an immovable object at home as they are 41-9 SU in Houston. Golden State sits at a respective 32-16 SU on the road.
The Warriors are going to be a popular choice in this market albeit they know how to win at this level. They have done so for the last three seasons. Moreover, analytics would dictate that the Warriors are in a position here to take advantage. Houston boasts a .831 win percentage after a victory while they are .647 after a loss. The Warriors are .671 after a win. In a nutshell, Golden State is in position to close this series because they know how to do so be that they are not behind the 8-ball.
Home court is going to be a huge asset to Houston in this contest. With emotions running high in Clutch City, the Rockets will have plenty of home cooking to work within Game Seven. Even if Houston were to fall, they would be a formidable threat in every phase of this penultimate contest.
From out of the chute, there has been a lean on the Warriors reflected in 81% of the public cash and 67% of the ticket action coming in on Golden State in Game Seven. As a result, we have seen the market move by 1.5 points to reflect this steam on the Warriors. In Over/Under markets, we have seen the line descend by a point to indicate action on the Under. See what the consensus is in the NBA Pick Fourm
If there was ever a scenario that was primed to see Golden State overvalued, this would be it. As a defending NBA Champion, the Warriors are prone to inflict premiums on takers by virtue of the fact Game Seven is expected to go their way irrespective of the fact that they are up against a franchise that has thrived on its home floor this whole campaign. When you combine this narrative with the fact that Golden State dominated in Game Six, the market is bound to foster an overreaction in Golden State’s follow-up here. Nevertheless, with the line ascending so rapidly the value may already have left the market for Golden State takers chasing the steam. This contest will likely be one of “possessions”. Every basket will count. With that said, you can expect the Rockets to malinger in this Game Seven which could likely be settled in the most dramatic of circumstances.
KEITH’s PICK TO COVER THE SPREAD: Houston +5.5 - Are you looking to get your feet wet betting on games online? Fast payouts, great in-game wagering and a 50% deposit bonus for new clients! Check them out >>> Bovada.