Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
8:30 PM ET, Toyota Center
The Houston Rockets are 8.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 220.5 at most books, and my play is Rockets -8.5.
Four home games, four double-digit wins. Dallas by 18, Atlanta by 10, Oklahoma City by 21, Boston by 16. Houston hasn’t just protected the Toyota Center this season; it has turned it into a place where good teams go to get embarrassed, and I don’t see a short-handed Minnesota team being the one to break the pattern.
Houston can beat you pretty or ugly
The Rockets are 7-1 and own the best offensive rating in the league, scoring 122.6 points per 100 possessions. That number gets the headlines, but Monday’s 109-93 win over Boston told me more. It was a rock fight, with 30 combined turnovers and 41 fouls, and Houston still held the Celtics to 38.6% shooting and won the fast-break battle 18-2.
“We really in the second half created a lot of turnovers,” Ime Udoka said afterward. “They missed some shots, we got out and ran, and that’s what kind of broke it open.”
That’s the scary part. Alperen Sengun runs the offense from the elbow (23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 7.8 assists), Kevin Durant is hitting 40.7% from deep, and Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson give Udoka two more players who can get 15 on any night. When the jumpers aren’t falling, the Rockets simply defend and run.
Minnesota without Ant is a different team
The Wolves’ season numbers look elite: a +11.2 net rating and the second-best defense in the league. But a big chunk of that came in the first four games, when Anthony Edwards was pouring in 33.3 points a night. He’s now out after knee surgery, with a return expected around late December, and Donte DiVincenzo is out for the long haul with an Achilles injury.
Without Edwards, Minnesota is 2-2 and outscoring teams by just over three points a game. It lost at home to Golden State, lost by 10 in San Antonio, and beat the Clippers and the Bucks, two teams sitting in the bottom third of the league in net rating. That’s a decent team. It isn’t one I want to back on the road against a 7-1 team that hasn’t lost at home.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Chris Finch knows his team has to manufacture offense now. “We weren’t running well off of defensive rebounding,” he said this week, and the plan is to push the pace. LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu combined for 53 points against Milwaukee, so the idea works against a bad team. The trouble is that Houston plays at one of the slowest paces in the league and punishes careless possessions. Running into the Rockets’ transition game is how you lose by 15.
Why I could be wrong
Minnesota still defends, and Rudy Gobert (12.0 rebounds a game) can make life hard on Houston’s offensive rebounders. These teams played three nail-biters last season, with a combined score of 350-351 according to The Dream Shake. Houston is also thin up front: Steven Adams is out and Clint Capela is day-to-day after missing Monday. If Ball gets hot from three again (he hit six on Monday), 8.5 points is a lot of cushion to hand away.
I still trust the team that keeps proving it. The Rockets are 4-0 against the spread at home, and at least one number I’ve seen this week was already up to 9.5. I’d play it up to -9.
Projected score: Rockets 116, Timberwolves 104
The Pick: Rockets -8.5
Houston keeps the Toyota Center streak rolling, so grab some extra bankroll before Wednesday night’s tip. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Rockets -8.5 and the rest of your Wednesday NBA picks.
