Golden State Warriors vs. LA Lakers Pick & Predictions

by | Last updated Mar 16, 2024 | nba

Golden State Warriors (34-31 SU, 35-29 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (36-31 SU, 30-37 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 16th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Arena, CA, Los Angeles


Point Spread: GS +3.5/LAL -3.5

Total: 238

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +131/-157

Notable Injuries


  • Draymond Green (Questionable) Back
  • Stephen Curry (Questionable) Ankle


  • Anthony Davis (Probable) Achilles
  • LeBron James (Questionable) Ankle
  • Christian Wood (Out) Knee
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
  • Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
  • Cam Reddish (Out) Ankle
  • Colin Castleton (Out) Wrist

At 8:30 ET, the Lakers (-157) will host the Warriors (+131) in a Western Pacific division matchup. The over/under line for this game is 238.

Golden State is currently 10th in the Western Conference and 5th in the Pacific Division with a record of 34-31. Los Angeles is 9th in the West and 4th in the Pacific, coming in at 36-31. ABC will televise the game from Arena in Los Angeles.

Recent Form

In their last game against the Mavericks, the Warriors lost by a score of 109-99. The O/U line for that game was 234 points. Golden State was getting 8.5 points going into the game.

The Warriors are 34-31 this season and are currently 10th in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 17-23 and 17-8 in non-conference games.

On the road, the Warriors are 17-14 straight-up and 21-10 ATS. Their average scoring differential on the road is +2.9 points per game.

As underdogs, the Warriors are 6-17 straight-up and 14-8 ATS. They have lost their last two games as the underdog and are 23-42 as the underdog this season.

This season, the Warriors have a 31-33-1 O/U record, and the under has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 234.9 points.

Today’s O/U line is set at 238 points, and the Warriors have played 50 of their games with lower O/U lines than that. This season, they are 14-8 as underdogs vs. the spread.

Today, the Lakers are favored by 3.5 points against the Warriors. As the favorite, the Lakers have gone 23-12 this season, and they are 14-21 ATS as the favorite. In their games as the favorite, the Lakers have gone 30-37 against the spread.

In their last game against the Kings, the Lakers were also favored, but they lost by a score of 120-107. The Lakers were favored by 2.5 points in that game, and they did not cover the spread. The O/U line for that game was 238.5 points.

This season, the Lakers have an O/U record of 37-30, and their games have averaged a combined 234.7 points. Today’s O/U line is set at 238 points, and the Lakers have played in 48 games with lower O/U lines than that.

In the Western Conference standings, the Lakers are currently in 9th place with a record of 36-31. In the Pacific Division, they are in 4th place. At home, the Lakers are 24-11 compared to 12-20 on the road.

So far this season, the Lakers are 30-37 ATS, and they have covered the spread in their last two home games. On average, they have an ATS scoring margin of +4.4 points per game at home.

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The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the 5 most recent games between Warriors and Lakers with just 2 points per game separating the teams. Los Angeles has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. Golden State and Los Angeles averaged a combined 236 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.


When it comes to scoring, the Warriors are one of the top teams in the league, averaging 118.2 points per game (8th). In fact, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 60% of their games this season. On the road, Golden State is averaging 118.8 points per game (2nd).

In terms of pace, the Warriors are 8th in the league at 100.2 possessions per game. This fast pace has led to Golden State being one of the top three-point shooting teams in the NBA. They are 2nd in three-pointers made per game (14.8) and 3rd in three-point attempts (39.5).

When it comes to efficiency, the Warriors are 16th in field goal percentage (47%) and 14th in true shooting percentage. Inside the arc, they are 18th in two-point shooting (54%).

Currently, the Warriors’ defense holds the 18th rank in the NBA, allowing 116.7 points per game. Most recently, the Warriors’ defense put together a solid performance, giving up just 109 points to the Mavericks.

Coming into tonight’s contest, the Lakers are 10th in the NBA in scoring at 117.1 points per game. At home, they are averaging 118.2 points per game.

Los Angeles is one of the top teams in the league in field goal percentage, shooting 49% on the season. They are also 7th in true shooting percentage.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Lakers are 8th in three-point percentage but are last in the NBA in three-point attempts per game.

The Lakers’ defense is presently ranked 22nd in the league, allowing an average of 117.6 points per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Lakers squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 54.3% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 37.8% from downtown.

Betting Trends

  • In their last five road games, Golden State has averaged 105 points per game while allowing 111. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Although Los Angeles has a straight up record of 2-3 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 116 points per game in these games.
  • In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have a straight up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 6-4.
  • Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Lakers have a strong record of 3-2. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

This should be a fun one in LA tonight, as these teams are neck and neck in the Western Conference standings. Depsite still dealing with an ankle injury, Steph Curry is expected to be on the floor, as the Warriors are jockeying with the Lakers for seeding. In addition, the Rockets have rattled off four straight and have closed to within 3.5 games for the final spot in the play in tournament. I expect this one to come right down to the wire and like the Warriors at +3.5.