Grizzlies vs. Rockets Predictions 3/20/22

by | Mar 20, 2022 | nba

Memphis Grizzlies (48-23 SU, 45-26-0 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (17-53 SU, 28-41-1 ATS)
When: Sunday March 20 2022, 03:30 PM (ET)
Where: Toyota Center, Houston Texas
TV: BSSE-MEM

Point Spread: MEM -10.5/HOU +10.5 (Opened MEM -9.5 at BetNow)
Total: 234 (Opened at 232.5)
Money Line: Memphis Grizzlies -561/Houston Rockets 416
Power Rating: MEM -9

Probable Starting Lineups

Memphis Grizzlies PG Tyus Jones, SG Dillon Brooks, SF Desmond Bane, PF Jaren Jackson Jr., C Steven Adams
Houston Rockets PG Kevin Porter, SG Jalen Green, SF Eric Gordon Q, PF Jae’Sean Tate, C Christian Wood

Key Injuries

Memphis Grizzlies Killian Tillie: Knee (OUT) Ja Morant: Knee (OUT)

Houston Rockets Eric Gordon: Knee (QUESTIONABLE) Usman Garuba: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE) John Wall: Holdout (OUT)

The Houston Rockets host the Memphis Grizzlies in a Western-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 03:30 PM ET at the Toyota Center.

Recent Form

The Memphis Grizzlies come into this game with an overall record of 48-23, placing them 2nd in the Western Conference. So far, Memphis is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 24-13. Over their last five games, the Grizzlies have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Memphis is averaging 123.0 points per game, 8.0 points more than their season average of 114.6. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. Even though Memphis has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 113.0 points per game, up from the Grizzlies’ usual rate of 109.5. In the Memphis Grizzlies’ most recent game, the team fell to Atlanta by a score of 120-105.

The Houston Rockets come into this game with an overall record of 17-53, placing them 15th in the Western Conference. Throughout the season, Houston has struggled in their 34 home contests, sitting at 10-24. Over the Rockets’ last five games, they have picked up just 1 win. During this stretch, Houston is averaging 115.0 points per game, 6.0 points more than their season average of 109.0. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Rockets’ recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 125.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 118.4. In the Houston Rockets’ most recent game, the team fell to Indiana by a score of 121-118.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Memphis travels to take on the Houston Rockets, the Grizzlies’ leading scorer is Ja Morant. Through 56 games, Morant is averaging 27 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 50.0% of his games. Against the Rockets, Morant will need to be on top of his game as Houston is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 41.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Christian Wood leads the Rockets in scoring, averaging 18 points across his 62 games. Throughout the season, Wood has outscored his season average in 52.0% of his outings. On the season, the Grizzlies have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 52.46% of their games, giving them a rank of 19th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Memphis Grizzlies are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 25 of Memphis’s 37 games, leading to a winning percentage of 72%. So far, the Houston Rockets have played 66 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 66 times, by an average margin of -13.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets have met up for 3 games. In their last meeting, Houston picked up a 123-112 win.

How the Public is Betting the Grizzlies vs Rockets

67% are betting the Grizzlies against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 232.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
  • Grizzlies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
  • Rockets are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Rockets are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into this matchup, the Memphis Grizzlies are 10.5 point favorites, even with Ja Morant set to miss the game with a knee injury. Even though Houston has been the underdog in nearly every game, they still have an ATS record of 28-41. However, without Morant, I see the Rockets keeping this game within the 10.5 point spread. Throughout the season has shown the ability to get to the line on offense. Look for Houston’s offense to be able to keep up with the Grizzlies, as they cover the spread.