Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Analysis, Free Pick ATS

by | Last updated Feb 24, 2023 | nba

Miami Heat (32-27 SU, 22-35-2 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (41-17 SU, 32-23-3 ATS)
When: Friday, February 24th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

Point Spread: Mia +1.5/Mil -1.5 (Stop wasting money betting games at -110 odds! Start laying only -105 TODAY at BetAnySports! You’ll be so glad you did!)
Total: 220.5
Money Line: Heat +104/Bucks -124

Notable Injuries


  • Kyle Lowry (Out) Knee
  • Tyler Herro (Probable) Knee
  • Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
  • Nikola Jovic (Out) Back


  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Doubtful) Wrist
  • Wesley Matthews (Out) Calf
  • Pat Connaughton (Doubtful) Calf

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 32-27 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 13-17 and a win percentage of 43%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 22-35-2 vs. the spread. Miami travels to take on the Bucks, hoping to avoid their 3rd straight loss.

In their last outing, Miami was unable to come away with a win against the Nets, losing by a score of 116-105. Bam Adebayo led the team with 24 points, but it was not enough to overcome their status as 2-point underdogs. The Heat also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Milwaukee is 41-17 overall. When playing at home, Milwaukee has a mark of 24-5 and a win percentage of 83%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 32-23-3 vs. the spread. Milwaukee will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Miami as they are the winners of 12 straight games.

In their last game, Milwaukee defeated the Bulls (112-100) as 8-point favorites. Brook Lopez led the team with 33 points on 72.2% shooting. The Bucks also covered the spread with the victory.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Heat picked up a 108-102 win over the Bucks. When looking at the outcome vs. the spread, Miami entered as the 6.0-point favorite, resulting in an ATS push. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 2-1 vs. the Bucks. The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 3-1-1 in favor of the Heat. In these matchups, Miami has averaged 113 points per game while allowing 108. Over the course of these games, they averaged 221 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

125% Cash up to $400 w/Bonus Code: PREDICTEM



This season, Miami is averaging just 108.3 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.6 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 28th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 34.8 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is the top scorer for Miami, averaging 21.6 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 54.4%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, averaging 21.7 points per game.

This season, the Bucks have loved to get up and down the court, as they are currently 11th in the league in possessions per game. However, this has not fully translated into the offensive success they are looking for, as Milwaukee is 14th in scoring at 114.8 points per game. The three-point shot has been a big part of Milwaukee’s offensive game plan, as they are ranked 4th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.9% of their looks from the outside. On defense, the Bucks allow an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs. Milwaukee.

As the Bucks prepare to face the Heat, it is unlikely that Giannis Antetokounmpo, the team’s leading scorer at 31.8, will be available. This means that Jrue Holiday, who is averaging 19.4, will likely have an increased role on offense.

More Picks: Get our Brooklyn at Chicago betting analysis and predictions for 2/24/23 >>>

Betting Trends

  • Heat are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games playing on three or more days rest.
  • Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

A ton of NBA bettors are likely to get smashed on this game where the wrong team is favored, and the books have set the biggest sucker bet line I’ve seen in weeks! I’m betting the Heat at +2! Bet your NBA picks for FREE all weekend by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you sign up at Everygame Sportsbook, deposit $100 to $500, then enter bonus promo code PREDICTEM on their Special Offers page before placing your first wager! They’ll match you dollar for dollar up to $500! EG is the oldest and most trusted bookie on the web! (Formerly Intertops) Click here to sign up now!