Heat vs. Celtics Game 3 Odds & Picks

by | May 21, 2022 | nba

Miami Heat (62-33 SU, 54-40-1 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (60-35 SU, 52-40-3 ATS)

When: Saturday May 21 2022, 08:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

TV: ABC

Point Spread: MIA +6.5/BOS -6.5 (Opened BOS -6.5 at Bovada - Their live betting platform is amazing! Check it out!)

Total: 207.5 (Opened at 208)

Money Line: Miami Heat 216/Boston Celtics -268

Power Rating: Heat -6

Probable Starting Lineups

Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry Q, SG Max Strus Q, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker Q, C Bam Adebayo

Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams

Key Injuries

Miami Heat
Max Strus: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
Gabe Vincent: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
P.J. Tucker: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)
Kyle Lowry: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)

Boston Celtics
Derrick White: Personal (PROBABLE)
Sam Hauser: Shoulder (OUT)
Nik Stauskas: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)

The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat in an Eastern-Conference Finals matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:30 PM ET at the TD Garden.

Recent Form

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 26-20. Over their last five games, the Heat have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Miami’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 109.0 points per game. Combined, the Heat’s last five opponents are giving up 106.0 points per contest. The Heat have been picking up wins while holding opponents to an average of 105.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.9. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, the team fell to Boston by a score of 127-102.

The Boston Celtics come into this game with an overall record of 51-31, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Boston is above .500 at home, holding a record of 32-15. The Celtics have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Boston’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 112.0 points per game. Combined, the Celtics’ last five opponents are giving up 108.0 points per contest. The Celtics have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 101.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.3. In the Boston Celtics’ most recent game, Boston took down Miami by a score of 127-102.

Individual Player Analysis

As Miami travels to take on the Boston Celtics, the Heat’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler. Through 58 games, Butler is averaging 21 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 50.0% of his games. Against the Celtics, Butler will need to be on top of his game as Boston is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 48.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring, averaging 26 points across his 76 games. Throughout the season, Tatum has outscored his season average in 47.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Tatum will need to do so against a Heat defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 29.69%. This figure is good for a rank of 0th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Boston Celtics are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 36 of Boston’s 80 games, leading to a winning percentage of 64%. So far, the Miami Heat have played 4 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 4 times, by an average margin of -30.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics have met up for 5 games. In their last meeting, Boston picked up a 127-102 win.

How the Public is Betting the Heat vs Celtics

67% are betting the Celtics against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 207.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Now that the series has shifted to Boston, the betting odds have completely flipped. Heading into Saturday’s contest, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites at home. In game 2, the Celtics dominated the first half after substituting big-man Robert Williams for Grant Williams. However, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is a master at making adjustments within the series. Look for Miami to have a plan if Boston continues to rely on a small-ball lineup. I like the Heat to cover at +6.5 points. Bet your Heat vs. Celtics prediction and ALL your NBA picks for free this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).