Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 Odds & Predictions

by | Last updated May 23, 2022 | nba

Miami Heat (63-33 SU, 55-40-1 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (60-36 SU, 52-41-3 ATS)

When: Monday May 23 2022, 08:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts


Point Spread: MIA +6.5/BOS -6.5 (Opened BOS -7 at BetOnline – Awesome live betting!)

Total: 207.5 (Opened at 208.5)

Money Line: Miami Heat 223/Boston Celtics -275

Power Rating:

Probable Starting Lineups

Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry Q, SG Max Strus Q, SF Jimmy Butler P, PF P.J. Tucker Q, C Bam Adebayo

Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart Q, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum P, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams Q

Key Injuries

Miami Heat
Max Strus: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
Kyle Lowry: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
Jimmy Butler: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)
Gabe Vincent: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
P.J. Tucker: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)
Tyler Herro: Quadricep (QUESTIONABLE)

Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Shoulder (PROBABLE)
Sam Hauser: Shoulder (OUT)
Marcus Smart: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE)
Robert Williams III: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)

The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat in an Eastern Conference Finals matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:30 PM ET at the TD Garden.

Recent Form

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 27-20. Over their last five games, the Heat have played well, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Miami’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 110.0 points per game. Combined, the Heat’s last five opponents are giving up 105.0 points per contest. The Heat have been picking up wins while holding opponents to an average of 102.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.9. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, Miami took down Boston by a score of 109-103

The Boston Celtics come into this game with an overall record of 51-31, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Boston is above .500 at home, holding a record of 32-16. The Celtics have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Boston’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 111.0 points per game. Combined, the Celtics’ last five opponents are giving up 107.0 points per contest. The Celtics have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 101.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.3. In the Boston Celtics’ most recent game, the team fell to Miami by a score of 109-103.


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Individual Player Analysis

As Miami travels to take on the Boston Celtics, the Heat’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler. Through 58 games, Butler is averaging 21 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 50.0% of his games. Against the Celtics, Butler will need to be on top of his game as Boston is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 48.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring, averaging 26 points across his 76 games. Throughout the season, Tatum has outscored his season average in 47.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Tatum will need to do so against a Heat defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 29.69%. This figure is good for a rank of 0th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Boston Celtics are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 36 of Boston’s 80 games, leading to a winning percentage of 64%. So far, the Miami Heat have played 4 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 4 times, by an average margin of -30.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics have met up for 6 games. In their last meeting, Miami picked up a 109-103 win.

How the Public is Betting the Heat vs Celtics

67% are betting the Celtics against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 207.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Leading into game 4 of this Eastern Conference Finals matchup between Miami and Boston, injuries are once again leading the pre-game discussion. All eyes are on whether Jimmy Butler will be able to play, as he sat out the entire second half of game 3. As of now, it appears he will be ready to play, but it remains to be seen how it will affect his production. When looking at the spread, Boston comes into the contest as a 6.5-point favorite. The Celtics also are dealing with their own injury concerns as Marcus Smart, and Robert Williams are both questionable. In game 4, I see Boston pulling out a close win, but recommend taking the Heat to cover, getting +6.5 points on the spread. Bet your Heat vs. Celtics prediction and ALL your NBA playoffs bets for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at Betnow Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICTEM).