Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets: Betting Picks & Game Analysis

by | Last updated Dec 8, 2023 | nba

Houston Rockets (8-7 SU, 11-4 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (12-6 SU, 7-11 ATS)

When: Wednesday, November 29th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver


Point Spread: Hou +6.5/Den -6.5

Total: 217

Money Line: Houston Rockets +212/-263

Notable Injuries


  • Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
  • Amen Thompson (Out) Ankle


  • Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Heel
  • Nikola Jokic (Questionable) Back
  • Jamal Murray (Questionable) Hamstring
  • Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
  • Peyton Watson (Probable) Illness
  • Hunter Tyson (Questionable) Illness

Recent Form

The Rockets will face the Nuggets, bringing in an overall record of 8-7 and a 2-1 record over their previous three games. Across their 15 games, the Rockets have recorded a 7-6 record when facing teams from the Western Conference and a 1-1 record in non-conference games.

Today, the Nuggets are entering the action with an overall record of 12-6 and have achieved a 3-0 record over their last three games. In away games this season, the Nuggets have put together a 4-6 record, whereas they have an 8-0 record when playing at home.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Houston has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 0 points per game separates the teams. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 218 points in these games.

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The Rockets’ offense wrapped up their last game with 115 points, aligning closely with their current season average of 110 points per contest. Alperen Sengün is leading the team in scoring at 20.9 points per contest. Jalen Green has also been a key contributor, with a PPG average of 19.1 going into the game.

At present, the Rockets’ defense is ranked 2nd, allowing 105.5 points per game.

When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Rockets squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 51.5% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 31.8% from downtown.

Coming off their recent game, the Nuggets offense tallied 113 points in a matchup against the Clippers. Their field goal percentage for the game was 47.8%, and they made ten threes. Offensively, the Nuggets hold a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, placing them 3rd in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 13th in terms of percentage and 23rd in three-pointers made.

In the current season, the Nuggets defense has excelled, sitting 7th in the NBA by allowing 108.9 points per game.

In terms of two-point field goal attempts, the Nuggets defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 51.9% while allowing 35.5% from downtown.

Betting Trends

  • Houston has a 0-5 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 111 points per game while allowing 115. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
  • Although Denver has a straight-up record of 2-3 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 106 points per game in these games.
  • In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Rockets have a straight-up record of 5-5 and an ATS mark of 8-2.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Denver has an ATS mark of 2-8 while going 5-5 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Rockets come into this matchup as the 6.5-point underdogs vs. a banged-up Nuggets team. Even though the Rockets will be playing on back-to-back nights, they do have some momentum vs. the Nuggets, as they beat them 105-86 last Friday. The way I’m playing this one is to take Houston at +6.5.