Houston Rockets (76-21 SU, 50-46-1 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (68-29 SU, 41-55 ATS)
Time: Saturday, May 26th, 2018 – 9:00 PM EDT
Where: Oracle Arena – Oakland, CA
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem
Odds Houston +650, Golden State -1000
Point Spread: Golden State -12
Total Line: 212.5
The Golden State Warriors will host the Houston Rockets for Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. The game will take place at the Oracle Arena in Oakland, California on Saturday, May 26th, 2018 at 9:00 PM ET. The fixture will be televised for national audiences on TNT. The series has been an entertaining one so far. The two teams remain deadlocked at 2-2 going into Game Five until the Rockets would once again soar. In what was a titanic clash, Clutch City would be clutch as their name entails defeating Golden State by a score of 98-94. Houston now sits one game away from an appearance in the NBA Finals, ending the Warriors’ dominant run of three consecutive appearances and their title reign.
A motif that has to be mentioned in the analysis of this series has been the strides Houston has made defensively. In the last two games, the Rockets have held the Warriors juggernaut offense to under 100 points. This is especially remarkable considering the weapons that Golden State possesses, as they have Curry, Durant, and Thompson all available at full health for the entire series.
There are several betting trends that we are looking at in Game Six. To begin, the Rockets are a considerable threat on the road as they are 35-12 SU outside of Clutch City. Houston won Game Four in The O, becoming the first team to win in Oakland in the playoffs since LeBron James in Game Seven of the 2016 NBA Finals. On that note, Golden State remains an impressive 36-13 SU at home. Lastly, the away team is 9-6 in the last fifteen games between these two opponents.
The Rockets have given the Warriors all they can handle. Outside of the Cleveland Cavaliers, no team has challenged Golden State in the playoffs over the course of the last three years. The Rockets are as close as one can get to knock off the mighty Warriors and this will fuel them here in Game Six.
Golden State at home in the playoffs is a spot that many takers will still like to bank on. The Warriors are facing elimination here, so the narrative is that the Warriors will win out of sheer will in addition to their home court prowess. The heavy lumber next to Golden State would imply that the likelihood is extremely high. Nevertheless, there is a very good chance that takers will have to overpay here to get a piece of the Golden State pie.
From the get-go, there has been a lean on the Warriors reflected in 70% of the public cash and 60% of the ticket action in on Golden State in Game Six. As a result, we have seen a 1.5-point line movement take shape as a result of this. In Over/Under markets, we have seen the number drop by a point to reflect the action on the Under. To counter this, 63% of the cash and 67% of the tickets are currently in on the Over in the present position.
From a consensus perspective, we have seen the Rockets get a lot of attention given the number of points they are taking back here. Such attention raises red flags. However, we have seen this market move by nearly two points which in many instances suggests that the value in Golden State is likely gone at this point. Markets are generally quite sharp in high-profile games of this magnitude, and it would be no shocker here if initial Golden State takers get a cover with Rockets backers getting a victory on the back-end of this steam. We’ll lean on the points here and now.
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