Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, November 8, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Target Center
Minnesota is an 11.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 224.5, and my play is Under 224.5.
Quick question: who in this game is going to score?
Anthony Edwards is out after knee surgery. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL. Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a sprained wrist. Take those three away and you have stripped about 67 points per game of scoring out of this matchup, and the total still sits in the mid-220s. I’m not buying it.
Utah’s offense is a rumor. The Jazz are 1-8, they’ve lost seven straight, and they’ve been just as bad for bettors at 1-8 against the spread. Their offense scores 102.0 points per 100 possessions, 29th in the league, and they give the ball away at the fifth-worst rate in the NBA. They’ve scored 100 or fewer in three of their last four games, and the Under has cashed in five of their last six. Keyonte George (21.3 points a night) is the one guy who can create his own shot. If Markkanen sits or plays at half speed with that wrist, George is going to see two bodies every time he turns a corner.
Minnesota’s defense is the real headline. The Wolves have the fourth-best defense in basketball and the best net rating in the league. They’re plus-5.9 per 100 possessions with Edwards off the floor, which is a fancy way of saying they still beat people up when he’s in street clothes. They just don’t do it with fireworks. Minnesota’s last game was a 115-109 win in New Orleans that stayed Under, and Jonathan Kuminga has drawn the primary assignment on stars from Giannis to Wembanyama. With Rudy Gobert pulling down 11.7 boards a game, Utah isn’t getting many second chances either.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Why not just lay the 11.5? Tempting. The Wolves are 9-1 against the spread and have covered five straight. But without Edwards, the margin gets fuzzy. Laying double digits with a team missing its 33-point scorer is a bet on the bench’s shooting, and the side gets close to the number when I run the efficiency numbers. The total is where the gap is. Both teams play right around league-average pace, so this isn’t a track meet waiting to happen. Put Utah’s broken offense against Minnesota’s elite defense and you get something in the low 100s for the Jazz. Minnesota’s offense is good, not unstoppable, without its best player.
The case against me. Utah’s defense ranks 24th, and the Wolves did drop 147 on the Jazz in their last meeting in March. If LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu get loose in transition off Jazz turnovers, Minnesota could hang 125 by itself and make this sweat. A garbage-time flurry of threes from both benches is the other nightmare. And if Markkanen plays and looks fine, Utah’s offense gets a lot more respectable.
The early-season samples are still small, so one hot shooting night can wreck any number. I’ll take that risk with this many scorers in street clothes.
Projected score: Timberwolves 115, Jazz 102
The Pick: Under 224.5
Bet on bricks in Minneapolis and bring some extra bankroll into Sunday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Under 224.5 and the rest of your NBA picks.
