Jazz vs. Bucks Odds, Analysis, Predictions 12/17/22

by | Dec 17, 2022 | nba

Utah Jazz (17-14 SU, 17-12-2 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (20-8 SU, 15-11-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 17th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: SN-RM

Point Spread: UTA +5.5/ MIL -5.5

Total: 231.0

Money Line: Utah Jazz +176/ -214

Notable Injuries

Jazz

  • Collin Sexton (Out) Hamstring
  • Simone Fontecchio (Questionable) Ankle

Bucks

  • Jrue Holiday (Probable) Illness
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable) Knee
  • Khris Middleton (Out) Knee
  • Joe Ingles (Out) ACL
  • Serge Ibaka (Probable) Illness

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Utah is 17-14 overall. When taking to the road, Utah has a mark of 6-9 and a win percentage of 40%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 17-12-2 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Milwaukee, the Utah Jazz have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

Utah will be looking to build on their most recent win over the Pelicans. Jordan Clarkson led the team to a win with his 39 points. The Jazz were 1 point underdogs on the spread, giving them an ATS win.

Milwaukee is 20-8 overall heading into the game. When playing at home, Milwaukee has a mark of 13-3 and a win percentage of 81%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 15-11-2 vs. the spread. In Milwaukee’s last five games, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 7-3 and 4-4-2 ATS.

In their last game, Milwaukee was defeated by the Grizzlies with a score of 142-101. Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 19 points, the team was unable to come out on top. Going into the game, the Bucks were 2 point favorites.

The Historicals

In the 2021-2022 regular season, the Bucks and Jazz split their head-to-head season series. In these matchups, each team won on their opponent’s home floor. Similar to their season-long average, the Jazz averaged 109.0 points per game vs. the Bucks. While the Jazz was able to maintain their usual level of production against Milwaukee, the Bucks averaged fewer points per game in the series, at 106.0. The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Jazz. In these matchups, Utah has averaged 119 points per game while allowing 113. Utah and Milwaukee averaged a combined 232 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

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Analysis

For the season, Utah has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.9 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 100.6 possessions per contest. Utah’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 8th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.0%. Defensively, the Jazz have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 107.57 points per game. So far, they have allowed a 3-point shooting percentage of 35.09%, placing them 15th in the NBA.

Lauri Markkanen is the top scorer for Utah, averaging 22.4 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 52.7%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jordan Clarkson, with an average of 20.2 points per game.

This year, the Milwaukee offense is not only near the NBA average in points at 112.2 points per game, but they are also playing at a pace similar to the league average. So far, the Bucks are ranked 17th in possessions per contest. The three-point shot has been a big part of Milwaukee’s offensive game plan, as they are ranked 7th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 34.7% of their looks from the outside. On defense, the Bucks allow an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs. Milwaukee.

Heading into the game, Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 30.6. Currently, Jrue Holiday is 2nd on the team in scoring at 19.1 points per game.

Betting Trends

  • Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss.
  • Bucks are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks aren’t wowing anybody right now but are catching Utah off a big emotional overtime win and on the road, where Utah struggles. I like the Bucks to cover the -5.5, but it won’t come easy.