Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Monday, October 26, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Kaseya Center, Miami
The Heat are 8.5-point favorites over the Mavericks with a total of 236.5, and my play is Mavericks +8.5 (-110).
Erik Spoelstra has coached the Heat for 19 seasons and had never started 0-3. Now he has, with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a Miami jersey. So why is the winless team laying more than a basket and a half? The market seems to think the Heat’s slow start is a fluke and Dallas’s injury list is the real story. I think it’s the other way around.
The Giannis experiment hasn’t clicked yet
Giannis is doing his part, at 28.3 points a game. Everything around him is a mess. Miami’s offense ranks 27th in points per possession, per TeamRankings, and the shooting has been ice cold. Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. have combined to go 12-of-43 from three, and two of the three losses weren’t close.
Saturday in Charlotte summed it up. Giannis picked up fouls, scored 14 points in 25 minutes and fouled out with under two minutes left. Miami’s best stretch came from a lineup heavy on reserves, which went on a 29-10 run to tie the game. Then the Heat lost anyway. “Ultimately what I told our team right now is we need inspiration,” Spoelstra said afterward. Getting asked to win by nine is a big ask for a team still looking for inspiration.
The defense hasn’t bailed anybody out either. Opponents are making 42.0 percent of their threes against Miami, dead last in the league per TeamRankings. Some of that is bad luck. Some of it is a team that hasn’t figured out who’s rotating where.
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Kyrie’s back, and Dallas has shown what it looks like at full speed
The Mavs sat Kyrie Irving on Saturday to manage his left knee on the second night of a back-to-back, and they got run by the Spurs 122-106. He’s off the injury report for Monday. Irving tore his ACL in March 2025 and has looked like himself in two games back, scoring 15 in Houston and 24 in Indianapolis.
That Indiana game is the one to remember. Dallas dropped 44 points in the first quarter and led 77-43 at halftime on the road. Even short-handed against San Antonio, the Mavs scored 46 points in the paint in the first half, a franchise record in the play-by-play era, per the Elias Sports Bureau. This group can score in bunches. It just needs a ball-handler, and Monday it gets one back.
Cooper Flagg is the swing piece. He’s questionable with a mild left shoulder sprain after scoring 32 in the opener. Naji Marshall (illness) is out, Caleb Martin (thumb) is doubtful, and Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama and Tarik Biberovic are out. The line moved from Miami -7.5 to -8.5, and I think that move has already priced in the bad news.
Rest is a wash. Both teams played Friday and Saturday and sat Sunday.
Where this ticket dies
Turnovers. Dallas coughs it up on 18.2 percent of its trips, 27th in the league per TeamRankings, and it had 21 giveaways in two of its three games. Miami doesn’t turn it over much on its own end and has forced 17 a night. If Giannis gets into the open floor off live-ball steals, this gets ugly quickly. And if Flagg sits and Kyrie’s knee isn’t right in his first game back, the Mavs may not have enough shot creation to keep it close.
I’ll still take the points. Miami hasn’t shown it can win, let alone win comfortably. Dallas gets its star point guard back, has already blown a team out on the road, and is getting more than a basket and a half. Anything +8 or better works for me.
Final guess: Heat 115, Mavericks 110
The Pick: Mavericks +8.5 (-110)
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